Northern Illinois at Toledo: Tuesday Night Football Pick

The MAC West title is on the line, as the conference's two best teams square off Tuesday night. The Northern Illinois Huskies travel to Ohio to take on the Toledo Rockets.

Both teams come in playing well. NIU has won their last 3 games, while Toledo has reeled off 4 straight. But a couple factors point to Toledo having a decided edge in this contest.

First, the Rockets are at home. They have beaten NIU 16 of the 17 times they have played at "the Glass Bowl."  Toledo lost one game at home this season, to top 5 team Boise State, but other than that they have dominated on their home turf.

Second, NIU beat Toledo last year, and the Rockets have had this game circled as a revenge game. They will be looking to pay back the Huskies for last year's 65-30 blowout, a game that paved the way for NIU to take down the conference crown.

And overall, Toledo has played a tougher schedule this year and are the more consistent team. Both teams will put up a lot of points. But the Rockets have the better defense and should produce a couple turnovers to turn the tide in their favor. Toledo has a turnover margin of +1.63 per game, which is 4th best in the nation.

Toledo opened up as a 7.5 point favorite, and have been bet up to 8.5. I don't love laying more than a touchdown in a rivalry game like this, but I have to side with the better team, at home, with revenge on their minds. Look for Toledo to pull away in a high scoring affair.

The Pick:

***** Lay the points with Toledo, -8.5

***** Go OVER 67

***** Looking ahead to Saturday Night's HUGE game between LSU and Alabama, I will tip my hand and tease Toledo -2.5 w/ LSU +11