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Kansas State vs. Texas: Preview and Prediction

It's not often that the bookmakers are wrong when they come out with their lines. Especially not this late in the season and not in a game between two teams that are ranked in the top 25.

But the bookies had it wrong when they released the numbers for this Saturday night's game between the 23rd ranked Texas Longhorns and the 12th ranked Kansas State Wildcats.

The game opened up with Texas as a 9 point favorite and the over/under set at 47. It was instantly hammered down to Texas -7.5, and the total ballooned to 53.5... I think by game time, Kansas State will be less than a TD dog.

And for good reason -- Kansas State is the better team. They have had an excellent season, in a year when not much was expected from them. They won their first 7 games, before losing back-to-back games vs Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Last week they rebounded to win a 4 OT thriller against Texas A&M.

Kansas state has been under appreciated all year, but bettors have been able to cash in. KSU is 8-2 against the spread. In most games, they have been the underdog and found a way to win outright. That very likely could be the case again this week.

Texas has a good defense, ranked 10th in the country against the run. They are giving just 101 yards a game. But the numbers have been padded against some fairly soft competition. Kansas State's running game is strong, led by QB Collin Klein. Look for the Texas D to be exposed.

In Kansas State's their last 4 road games, they have been the underdog each time and in each they have covered. It will happen again Saturday night.

Kansas State has been an 'over' machine this year as well, with their last 5 all going over the total. The number is 53.5 right now,  but will probably be higher by kickoff . Both teams will rely heavily on the run, which sometimes makes going over a little dicey.... Still, Kansas State & the over is the play.

The Pick:

***** Kansas State, +7.5

***** Kansas State, money line +250

***** Kansas State +7.5 & over 53.5 parlay

 

 

 

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