The Red Sox Leading Man
Just about every baseball pundit has weighed in on what the Red Sox batting order should be. Every Red Sox fan has their opinion. I have seen lineups ranging from Pedroia hitting ninth to Adrian Gonzalez hitting sixth, and every lineup in between. I personally have had arguments on twitter with fellow Red Sox fans. One of these twitter arguments was with Jared Carrabis who has also become a veteran of arguing about this issue. He actually detailed a face to face argument he had with a Sox fan about the lineup in his blog.
It is a great debate, a debate that Red Sox fans were not having this time last year. The debate last February involved bridges to nowhere or something like that. Like all Red Sox fans, I believe I have the answer, and it all starts with the leadoff man.
Leading Off
This is the real issue. If you solve this riddle the rest of the lineup falls into place. It is also the one spot in the lineup where guys have definite opinions one way or another. Jacoby Ellsbury wants to lead off and thinks of himself as a leadoff hitter.
Kevin Youkilis was quoted as saying he would be comfortable hitting anywhere in the lineup, except leadoff.
Carl Crawford said early in his career he did not like hitting leadoff. Since signing with Boston he has softened on that stance explaining he was a very young player when he made those statements.
Dustin Pedroia has not been a fan of leading off in the past and his numbers reflect that sentiment. However, he did say a few days ago he would have no problem with it. Pedroia also explained the reason for his poor numbers in the lead-off spot were due to changing his approach and losing his aggressiveness. He vowed if he were asked to lead off again he would not change his approach.
The lead-off spot comes down to three candidates, and Kevin Youkilis is not one of the options. It is between Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Carl Crawford.
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jacoby Ellsbury seems to be the early favorite to lead off. Francona has already made a statement to that effect but if you look at his numbers, Ellsbury struggles when he is inserted at the top of the order. However, the former Oregon State star thrives when he hits towards the bottom of the order. His overall career numbers are (.291/.344/.405) while Jacoby's numbers leading off are a mediocre(.279/.330/.379)
When you compare those numbers to his numbers hitting at the bottom of the order, (see the chart below), it is easy to see that Ellsbury is much more valuable out of the pressure cooker of the lead-off spot for the Boston Red Sox. Now I realize that his bottom of the order numbers are pulled from a much smaller sample size but maybe Ellsbury is not ready to be that leadoff guy and would continue to benefit to hit down in the order. If it was up to me, I would bat him ninth.
| I | Split | PA | HR | RBI | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batting 1st | 1229 | 10 | 90 | .279 | .330 | .379 | |
| Batting 2nd | 31 | 2 | 9 | .304 | .419 | .609 | |
| Batting 3rd | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Batting 4th | 4 | 0 | 0 | .667 | .750 | .667 | |
| Batting 5th | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | |
| Batting 6th | 38 | 1 | 3 | .258 | .351 | .387 | |
| Batting 7th | 81 | 1 | 12 | .311 | .358 | .446 | |
| Batting 8th | 58 | 4 | 7 | .415 | .456 | .679 | |
| Batting 9th | 68 | 2 | 9 | .371 | .426 | .516 |
Dustin Pedroia
Dustin Pedroia is another option to lead off, but as we mentioned before his past numbers in that spot are well below acceptable for the former MVP. I have no doubt that if Pedroia were to lead off this year he would do a much better job adjusting to the role than he has in the past and without a doubt would put up some very good numbers, but Dustin is at his best in the number two slot and for my lineup that is where he will stay.
| I | Split | PA | HR | RBI | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batting 1st | 354 | 5 | 27 | .253 | .318 | .375 | |
| Batting 2nd | 1844 | 42 | 198 | .313 | .377 | .473 | |
| Batting 3rd | 45 | 3 | 7 | .275 | .333 | .575 | |
| Batting 4th | 23 | 2 | 7 | .650 | .652 | 1.150 | |
| Batting 7th | 8 | 0 | 0 | .143 | .250 | .143 | |
| Batting 8th | 43 | 0 | 2 | .243 | .333 | .324 | |
| Batting 9th | 153 | 2 | 12 | .304 | .382 | .430 |
Carl Crawford
| I | Split | PA | HR | RBI | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batting 1st | 1695 | 27 | 158 | .288 | .323 | .421 | |
| Batting 2nd | 2651 | 62 | 304 | .305 | .349 | .463 | |
| Batting 3rd | 852 | 14 | 107 | .294 | .338 | .452 | |
| Batting 4th | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | |
| Batting 5th | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Batting 6th | 2 | 1 | 1 | .500 | .500 | 2.000 | |
| Batting 7th | 9 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .125 | .000 | |
| Batting 8th | 43 | 0 | 5 | .231 | .302 | .308 | |
| Batting 9th | 129 | 0 | 17 | .285 | .305 | .358 |
That brings us to Carl Crawford, who I believe is the best lead-off option for this Red Sox team. He is a better hitter than Ellsbury and has more speed than Pedroia. He can get on and disrupt the game with his speed and Pedroia has proven he can flourish in the number two spot with a base stealer ahead of him, a talent that not everyone has. More importantly, when the lineup flips you will have Ellsbury and Crawford back to back in the order which will be a nightmare for pitchers and catchers. Putting Crawford in the leadoff spot lets the rest of the lineup fall into place just like this:
The Lineup
1) LF Crawford(L)
2) 2B Pedroia (R)
3) 1B Gonzalez (L)
4) 3B Youkilis (R)
5) DH Ortiz (L)
6) SS Lowrie (S)
7) RF Drew (L)
8) C Salty/Tek (S)
9) CF Ellsbury (L)
Adrian Gonzalez is the ideal #3 hitter and Youkilis is an emerging RBI machine who could walk home with the MVP this season because of the lineup around him. Lowrie is my shortstop and his ability to switch hit and kill left handed pitching will play a huge role with this lineup and keeping it balanced. This is my Red Sox lineup, the best possible lineup. Ready to argue?
As always you can contact via twitter @ThePeskyPole6 or email me your questions and/or comments to [email protected]
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