Six Ways the Cleveland Cavaliers Can Still Have a Successful 2011 Season
In a predicament that few if any professional teams have ever been in, the Cleveland Cavaliers are left with the ultimate dilemma going into the 2010-11 NBA season: try and retool with what's remaining on the roster, or blow it all up and start from scratch?
There are arguments for both sides. Regardless of what 99 percent of the country seems to believe, there is actual talent left for Cleveland.
Mo Williams isn't an elite player for his position, especially when the point guard spot in the East is dominated by the likes of Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, John Wall, Devin Harris, and Brandon Jennings. But he is a streak scorer capable of getting hot and becoming one of the best pure shooting PGs in the league.
As he showed in the playoffs the last two years, he shouldn't be the second-option on a contending team. Maybe not even the third-wheel. Still, the Cavs aren't championship contenders so his lack of success in the postseason shouldn't be blown too much out of proportion.
Antawn Jamison is 34 years old and making $28 million over the next two years. There aren't a lot of positives you can spin from that, but he's still easily a 15-16 point scorer in a system that actually takes advantage of his skill set and doesn't stand him at the three-point line.
Anderson Varejao will continue to do the little things (offensive rebounding, taking charges, one-on-one defense) that are integral for any team's success.
J.J. Hickson is a work-in-progress that has shown improvements in each of his first two seasons.
With a mid-level exception, a trade exception worth up to $16 million, and almost $9 million in cap space ($13 million if Delonte West is waived), this team most likely won't be the pathetic cellar-dwellar that many pundits have predicted.
On the flip side, since the team is no longer close to championship-caliber and there aren't any marquee free agents available (and even if they were, Cleveland definitely isn't the most attractive option at this point) that they could build around, there really is no point in keeping this "nucleus" together.
It's unknown which path GM Chris Grant and owner Dan Gilbert will follow, but they seem committed to winning, meaning a complete overhaul of the roster is highly unlikely.
So what are some things the Cavs can do to be successful in 2011 while still maintaining cap flexibility and draft picks?
The following is a list of moves, acquisitions, trades, or changes in game plan that Cleveland can utilize to make a run at the playoffs...or to at least sustain competitiveness.
Keep in mind each idea isn't reliant on another to happen—if one slide suggests "use a small lineup" and another is "trade for Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol" (hypothetical, it's obviously not going to happen), those two ideas contradict one another.
If you want a list of specific trades/moves Cleveland could make, check out my Cavs roster overhaul article from last week, a few suggested moves to keep the Cavs in the playoff race, and possible roster reconstruction (courtesy of Cleveland Plain Dealer beat writer Brian Windhorst).
Find a Legit Backup Point Guard
The Cavs haven't had a pure, legitimate point guard since the days of Eric Snow and Andre Miller.
It says "point guard" next to Mo's name, but he's the classic case of a shooting guard trapped in a 6'1" frame. He's at his best when he spots up without the ball, runs off screens (fans might not realize this since the Cavs haven't done it in the last two years), and occasionally attacks off the bounce to keep his defender on edge.
Not one of those is a trait one would find in a prototypical point guard.
The backup point guards? Delonte West (more of a combo guard who has almost certainly played his last game for Cleveland), Daniel Gibson (has similar strengths to what Williams possesses, only a much better on-the-ball defender and more of a spot-up shooter), and Sebastian Telfair (a career backup who has far from excelled at that position).
Currently there are zero players on roster that can come in off the bench (or even in a starting role) and break defenses down off the dribble, set teammates up for open looks, and dictate pace and tempo.
There are a few players on the market (whether it's free agency or on the trading block) that can fill this gap.
One option that's still available is Luke Ridnour, the backup point guard for Milwaukee. The problem is that he's a very similar player to Mo Williams—a better passer, but not quite as accurate from outside and just as poor of a defender (if not worse).
But he might not be on the market long. Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski has reported that the Timberwolves are looking to move Ramon Sessions in order to make room to sign Ridnour.
Sessions would be an interesting fit. He played with Williams in Milwaukee in the 2007-08 season and the two became close. He has a game that could complement Mo as well (better passer, ball-handler).
But with three years and more than $12 million remaining on his contract, the Cavs might not want to commit that long on a reserve player.
The best bet might be restricted free agent Kyle Lowry. He's not dynamic, but is a strong on-the-ball defender that can adequately run an offense. The Cavs have sign-and-trade options and part of the mid-level exception to offer.
Play Small Ball Often
One glaring absence on the roster is the lack of a center. Anderson Varejao is the closest that can fit the bill, and he has played the position in certain lineups in the past.
J.J. Hickson is too undersized at this point to be a serious option. Same goes for Leon Powe.
There isn't an excess of size available through free agency. Obviously there is Shaquille O'Neal, but it's hard to imagine the big fella returning after the way things ended last season...plus, he more than likely won't want to end his career on a team that would at best be fighting for a playoff spot.
Same goes for a veteran like Brad Miller.
Jermaine O'Neal and Brendan Haywood have already signed, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas (a Cavalier lifer) doesn't appear to be a part of any future plans.
Whatever size the Cavs do add, it more than likely won't be anything of substantial value.
The counter-argument to this would be, how much size is actually necessary during an NBA regular season?
You can count the dominant centers on one hand: Dwight Howard. Sure, there are up-and-comers (Brook Lopez, Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, Marc Gasol) and effective veterans (Marcus Camby, Tim Duncan, Yao Ming), but teams are gravitating more and more to smaller, quicker lineups that surround elite scorers with outside shooting and rebounding.
Now, the correlation between size and success in the playoffs is a different matter, and one that would undoubtedly hurt the Cavs if they somehow managed a playoff berth. But that's for a different article.
Some of the best lineups the Cavs have offered over the past two years are ones that featured Varejao at center.
Obviously the other components in those lineups will be a little different this year. But the best options will be ones that feature two outside shooters (a combo of Mo, Anthony Parker, Gibson, Free Agent X), an athletic body at the small or power forward spot (Hickson, Jamison, Jamario Moon, Free Agent Y), and Andy in the middle.
Over the past few years, Atlanta has won 45+ games with 6'10" Al Horford starting at center.
Chicago made the playoffs twice with 6'11" Joakim Noah.
Miami did the same with Jermaine O'Neal's corpse masquerading in the middle.
It can be done. With new coach Byron Scott saying he wants to incorporate '80s Showtime Laker basketball into the Cavs offense, small ball is far-and-away the best alternative.
Get J.J. Hickson as Many Minutes as Possible
Cleveland's most impressive and sole young talent, Hickson is going to see a dramatic increase from his average of 20.9 minutes per game.
He started 73 games for the Cavs last year but got lost in the roster shuffle that occurred come playoff time when both Antawn Jamison and Shaquille O'Neal were healthy for the first time. It's no coincidence that once Hickson's minutes sharply decreased, so did the Cavs' athleticism, up-tempo style, and youth and activity inside.
Some of that was due to Mike Brown's one-dimensional offense and the slowed-down pace that's typically played in the playoffs. But despite his frequent up-and-downs, overall Hickson progressed nicely throughout the year.
This year, he won't have a future Hall-of-Fame center mentoring him and commanding attention (there was always a body on Shaq) in the lane, allowing him to roam free on offense to fill gaps, attack the glass, and run on the secondary break.
Hickson is preparing for Summer League play, something that isn't typical for three-year players. Offensively, he has a lot of room to grow, especially in his isolation game.
Jamison is currently Cleveland's best low-post scorer, but as the only elite back-to-the-basket player, he'll face more attention in the post and more than likely doesn't have the agility and athleticism to consistently get off his shot. He'll be much more adept at hitting mid-range jumpers, converting floaters off the dribble, and getting layups off of putbacks.
The Cavs will need someone to score from the block, and Hickson has to be that threat. Whatever the go-to move is, be it a hook shot, an up-and-under, or a face-up attack, he needs to develop it.
He's also working on his pick-and-pop jumper with assistant coach Chris Jent—specifically the mid-range game.
As Windhorst points out in his article, J.J. will be relied upon for a developed, well-rounded game, and he might have to even be more of a leader on the floor. No pressure for a 21-year-old. But if he continues to grow and mature, it's definitely a step in the right direction for the Cavalier franchise.
Use the Mid-Level Exception Wisely
Teams with cap space this summer haven't been shy about using it, even if it comes to mid-level role players. They haven't been shy about overpaying either.
Travis Outlaw got a $35 million deal in New Jersey.
Wes Matthews will get a similar deal from either Portland or Utah.
Drew Gooden received $32 million from Milwaukee.
Udonis Haslem was offered around $25 million from Denver before ultimately deciding to remain in Miami.
Josh Childress was welcomed back into the Association with a $34 million deal.
Tyrus Thomas? $40 million.
Brendan Haywood? $55 million.
Get the picture yet?
Even after acquiring a $16 million trade exception, the Cavs still have their $5.7 million mid-level exception.
Though most of Cleveland's targeted free agents/target are off the board (Josh Childress and Leandro Barbosa in particular), a few attractive pieces are waiting for the right offer.
One would be Richard Jefferson, a versatile swingman who struggled in San Antonio last year. Though his numbers were down, part of that was his difficulty adjusting to Gregg Popovich's demanding coaching style and the Spurs' offense.
He thrived when playing with Jason Kidd in an up-tempo system, and while the Cavs definitely don't have a passer anywhere near Kidd's stature, the new regime led by Byron Scott could intrigue Jefferson.
Another option is former Knick forward Al Harrington. He's been quiet throughout free agency—his name hasn't been linked to many teams.
Cleveland has been intrigued by Harrington since the outset of free agency, and while the feeling doesn't appear to be completely mutual, the style of basketball offered by the Cavs and coach Scott could be something that piques his interest.
He would fit the need of an athletic forward who can rebound and spread the floor, and he has experience playing in similar up-tempo styles in Golden State and New York (though the pace won't be quite as frenetic).
The important thing for the Cavalier front office is to not panic and overpay somebody if they can't land any of their top targets. They're at a point now where draft selections and mid-level signings are of vital importance for the future—a bad contract can easily set them back a year or two.
Make a Blockbuster Trade
Obviously, this is the lone scenario where Cleveland can make strides in quickly becoming a perennial contender again.
Unfortunately, the list of superstars in this league is short. The list of acquirable superstars is even shorter.
A quick rundown of a few players that could be available if the price was right.
Carmelo Anthony
A hot topic of conversation in the past week has been 'Melo's contract situation. The Nuggets have offered him a three-year, $65 million extension over which Anthony is still pondering.
If he declines (which isn't a formality, it could be a better deal than he would receive after the new CBA), Denver is at a crossroads: do they trade him to get what they can or hold on in hopes of re-signing him?
Even if he does go on the block, there's little the Cavs can offer besides a package of Hickson, draft picks, and some of their trade exception. The likelihood of 'Melo playing in Cleveland is extremely small.
Chris Paul
As each day passes it seems more and more likely that Paul will be traded before his contract in New Orleans ends.
Rumors have him landing in places like New York or Miami (if Pat Riley somehow pulled this off with absolutely nothing to offer the Hornets, he should be out making deals to get the country out of debt).
The Cavs made a hard push to try and pull CP3 from the Hornets, but couldn't it get it done. If they didn't have the pieces to pull off this deal a few weeks ago, it's hard to imagine much will change in the future.
Danny Granger
The Pacers shopped Granger to the Nets as part of a package for the No. 3 deal last month. Drafting Paul George, who plays the same position as their best player, had some questioning whether Indiana wasn't just testing the waters but were actively trying to move him.
With a lot of cap space coming off the books next summer, the Pacers have room to build around Granger. It would take a good amount of assets and talent to acquire him, and that's the something the Cavs just don't have at this point.
Plus, wasting all of the newly acquired draft selections and potential future talent on a guy like Granger is a risk—he's a great talent, but could he be the franchise guy for a consistently competitive organization?
Al Jefferson
Maybe the deal that not only makes the most sense, but has the best chance of happening (not a great chance, but it's plausible).
The T'Wolves have been testing the market for Jefferson, and while the Cavs have engaged in discussions with Minnesota, nothing substantial progressed. Meanwhile, Dallas and Utah are two teams that were in serious talks to acquire the power forward.
Minnesota is looking to get some first-round picks and talent in return. Cleveland could offer something similar; they just acquired multiple first and second-round picks to go along with a $16 million trade exception.
(Note: According to ESPN's Marc Stein, the Jazz are on the verge of acquiring Jefferson, but as of the time of publication, nothing official had been announced.)
Don’t Try to Get It All Back at Once
Owner Dan Gilbert promised the city of Cleveland a championship. It was a bold but generous gesture on the part of a frustrated and aggravated fan, not one from an intelligent, think-things-through owner.
Gilbert spoke in haste and out of passion, and not just for the loss of millions his business investment took. Had he taken time to gather his thoughts and presented them in a more articulate manner, he probably would have written something along the lines of, "I promise the Cavs will always be competitive and we will continue on our quest for a championship."
That's what Cleveland fans needed to hear. In a way, Gilbert's letter was a well-calculated ploy to garner the support and backing of the Cavalier faithful. It showed that he wasn't going to stand pat and blow things up like so many other Cleveland owners have done—he wants to win. Now.
At the same time, he (and the rest of the front office) needs to realize the serious limitations of their moves this offseason and the fragility behind these moves.
The past few years weren't built around sophisticated and intricate planning for the future; it was about doing whatever the organization could to compete and ultimately win the NBA title.
Now, the entire team has a much different approach. Every single move could have a significant impact on the future. A bad signing, even for a mid-level contract, can set the process back years.
A wasted draft pick can do the same.
Most Cavalier fans won't be expecting much. Fellow writers and bloggers alike have written articles already branding the Cavs as one of the worst teams in the league.
But it's not unreasonable to think they can be competitive. Clevelanders always appreciate a hard-working, blue-collar team. Rather than striving for a title in an unwinnable game of one-upmanship, Gilbert and Co. should focus on putting together a team that will play hard, fight for a playoff spot, and still maintain an abundance of options for the future.
Do that, and the 2010-11 campaign should be considered a success.
