Plunking Gomez

Emm Vee Pee: Your Sideburned Overlord

I'm not really supposed to be doing any unnecessary typing, so I'm gonna make this brief (well, relatively speaking).  Joe Mauer won his third first MVP award this year, in nearly a landslide.  You could make a case for Zack Greinke, Ben Zobrist, and yeah, probably Derek Jeter, too, but of the three, only Greinke was having a historic season on par with Mauer.  He also lead one craptastic Twins team that really had no business in the postseason into the postseason, and it certainly isn't his fault they got swept in the ALDS:  he batted .417/.500/.500 in 14 plate appearances against New York, despite being robbed of an extra-base hit.  Mauer won his third batting title this year as well, something that no other catcher in MLB history has ever done (heck, no other catcher in the American League has ever even won one).  I mentioned somewhere before that Man Muscles was on the verge of breaking a couple of records:  Mike Piazza's 1997 season as the all-time greatest for a catcher, and the franchise single-season OPS record.  Let's see how he did:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Piazza	.362	.431	.638	1.070	185
Mauer	.365	.444	.587	1.031	170

Well, it's awfully close. Since wins above replacement isn't calculated as far back as 1997 (and I'm certainly not going to take a stab at it), let's use wRAA (runs above replacement based on wOBA) as the tiebreaker:

Piazza:  63.9

Mauer:  54.9

Ooooh, so close, but it looks like Piazza is the winner here.  He also smacked 40 dingers that year, while Man Muscles smacked a more modest 28. As for the franchise single-season OPS record, Man Muscles again came up a bit shy of the 1.056 mark set by Goose Goslin in 1928.  However, if you don't count the Senators' years (and, sadly, the organization usually doesn't), then he is in sole possession of the single-season OPS record, surpassing the 1.019 mark set by Rod Carew in 1977 (who also won the AL MVP that year).  Actually, Mauer is already in the top five in all sorts of franchise offensive categories, both career and single-season, and he's only 26!  Obviously, it's far too soon to start calling him the GREATEST CATCHER EVAR!!1!, or even in franchise history for that matter, since he's only six seasons into his major-league career.  Catchers tend to break down much faster than other position players, so there is the risk that Man Muscles will go all Jason Kendall on us (something the front office should keep in mind when working out a contract extension).  But I'll address all of that once the two sides actually agree to an extension. Um, if the two sides ever agree to an extension, that is.

Oh, and he sexy:

In Retrospect: The 1995 Twins

Soooo, it turns out the strange pain and numbness in my forearms and wrists and hands is from carpal tunnel.  Fantastic.  I'm probably not going to need surgery, but I am going to have to limit my non-work-and-school related computer usage for at least the next 4-6 weeks.  So, depending on how good I am at following instructions, this will likely be the last new blog post in quite awhile.

I've written about the 2002 team and how they were the first one worth watching in nearly decade, but I'd like to examine some historically bad Twins teams, too.  The 56-88 1995 squad wasn't the worst in franchise history (it's difficult to compare teams from different eras, but that distinction probably goes to the 1904 Washington Senators), and frankly, I couldn't decide whether this or the 1999 team was the worst of the decade.  So, I've decided to write about them both.  The 1999 team was probably worse in almost every way than the 1995 team, but the 1995 team signaled the end of an era for the organization.  Only four years after winning the World Series, the Twins were in trouble.  Most of the talent on that team had either left via free agency, retired, or simply gotten old.  They hadn't had a winning season since 1992, and seemed to be getting worse.  GM Terry Ryan (who was only in his second season as GM, after taking over for Andy MacPhail in 1994) decided to scrap the whole thing and embark on a massive rebuilding project that would last for six seasons, until the Twins finished with an 85-77 record and barely missed the postseason in 2001.

The Good:

Chuck Knoblauch:

*Sigh* Remember when the Twins used to have a good homegrown second baseman?  Knobby might have been the best hitter on the team that year, although Kirby had a slight edge in the power department.  He batted .333/.424/.479 with 11 home runs, while providing his usual stellar defense and being one of the few bright spots on an otherwise terrible team.  Knobby would stick around for a couple more years, then get sick of all the losing and demand a trade.  He got his wish and was dealt to the Yankees after the 1997 season for what would become some very useful pieces in Eric Milton and Cristian Guzman.  Knobby would continue to be a productive hitter in the Bronx and win three more World Series championships with the Yankees, though his defense would suddenly and inexplicably fall off a cliff.

Kirby Puckett:

Kirby was about the only other bright spot on this team, batting .314/.379/.515 with 23 home runs, in his first full season in right field (he had shifted to right in the strike-shortened 1994 season).  Unfortunately, his season ended early when he was struck by a Dennis Martinez fastball in a game against the Indians on September 28, breaking his jaw. Sadly, this would also be Puckett's final season in a Twins uniform.  Glaucoma robbed him of his sight in his right eye and forced him to retire at age 35.  Puckett was inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame in 2001, his first season of eligibility, though whether or not he really was worthy of induction is debatable.  The Twins retired his number in 1997 and inducted him in the inaugural franchise Hall of Fame class in 2000.  He passed away from complications of a stroke in 2006.

Rick Aguilera:

Well, the Twins didn't have very many late leads, so there wasn't really much for Aggie to do.  At least his 2.52 ERA and 4.83 K/BB made him valuable trade bait, so the Twins dealt him to the Red Sox for Frank Rodriguez halfway through the season, once they were hopelessly out of contention.  Either Aggie loved the organization or he liked having a lot of off days, as he re-signed with the Twins in the offseason, though he was (briefly) converted to a starter. Aggie would pitch for the Twins for four more seasons, before being dealt along with prospect Scott Downs to the Cubs for Kyle Lohse and Jason Ryan.

Marty Cordova:

Cordova's rookie season was a breakout one:  he batted .277/.352/.486 and earned Rookie of the Year honors over the likes of Andy Pettitte and Garret Anderson.  Unfortunately, Cordova was sidelined with back injuries for most of his career and never did live up to the potential for power he displayed in the minors (he also wasn't, at least as far as I can remember, a very good defender).  It's unlikely that Cordova would ever have been a superstar, but he could have finished with better than a .274/.344/.448 line. He still put together a pretty good career for himself, however, lasting nine seasons with the Twins, Blue Jays, Indians, and Orioles.  He's probably most famous outside Minnesota for burning his face after falling asleep in a tanning bed while he was with the Orioles.

The Meh:

Pat Meares: 

That's right, before he was a Pirate, Meares was the Twins' starting shortstop for six seasons.  He batted an acceptable .269/.311/.431, and, actually I'm not really sure about his defense.  I don't remember Meares as a defender very well, and UZR data doesn't go back that far (and I don't think it's worth my time to try to figure it out), but I'm guessing he must have been above average.  He spent nine seasons in the major leagues, and light-hitting shortstops don't usually last that long unless they provide at least some value on defense, even on rebuilding teams.  Meares was granted free agency in 1998 and signed with the Pirates.  Cristian Guzman would then take over at short.

Brad Radke:  It was his rookie season and Bradke was thoroughly mediocre, posting a 5.32 ERA, 5.42 FIP, and 1.60 K/BB ratio while surrendering home runs at a rate of 1.6 per nine innings.  Obviously things would get a lot better for the future Twins' ace.  And by 'Twins' ace', I of course mean 'the only starter with an ERA under 5.00 until, like, 2001'.

Scott Erickson:

It was Erickson's final season with the Twins, and he was awful.   He went 4-6 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.41 K/BB ratio before in 15 starts before being traded to the Orioles. He pitched better in Baltimore and was rewarded with a 5-year contract extension in the offseason.  He later pitched for the Mets, Rangers, Dodgers, and Yankees before retiring in early 2007.  Dr. Death attempted a comeback with the Twins in 2008, but didn't make it out of winter ball.   He now serves as a film producer, with A Plumm Summer being his most notable work.

Mike Trombley:

At 28 and 31, Trombley and Kevin Tapani were the oldest starters in the rotation that year.  Trombley had one of the worst seasons of his career, posting a 5.62 ERA, 5.49 FIP, and 1.62 K/BB ratio. He had a decent strikeout rate, but walked 3.87 batters per nine innings and posted one of the worst home run rates of his career (1.66 HR/9). He pitched for four more seasons with the Twins, before signing with the Orioles in 2000.  He spent a season and a half in Baltimore, then was traded to the Dodgers in 2001.  He signed with the Twins again in 2002, but was released in May. 

Kevin Tapani:

One of the last remnants of the Frank Viola trade, this was also Tapani's final season with the Twins.  Tapani was actually one of the better starters in the rotation despite his 4.92 ERA in his first 20 starts.  He was traded to the Dodgers, where he would finish the season with a 4.96 ERA, 4.54 FIP, and 2.73 K/BB ratio.  He signed with the White Sox in 1996 and put up halfway decent numbers.  Tapani signed with the Cubs in 1997 and pitched for four more seasons, before retiring after the 2001 season.

Frankie Rodriguez: 

The Twins got Rodriguez from the Red Sox in the aforementioned Aguilera trade, and he wasn't very good.  He posted a 5.37 ERA, 1.550 WHIP and 0.95 K/BB ratio in 87 innings.  Rodriguez had one good season with the Twins: in 1998, when he posted a 3.90 FIP and 7.97 K/9 rate (though he still had a fairly high walk rate), despite his 6.26 ERA.  Rodriguez was claimed off waivers by the Mariners in 1999, and pitched for three more seasons with the Mariners and Reds.  He hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2001, but did pitch for the Newark Bears in 2008.  It's kind of sad that Rodriguez has been out of major league baseball since he was about 28, but not really that surprising when you look at his career numbers.

The Ugly:

LaTroy Hawkins: 

The Hawk made his major-league debut as a starter and it didn't go very well, lasting only 1.2 innings and giving up seven runs on seven hits against Baltimore.  He made five more starts between extended stints in AAA, posting an 8.67 ERA and a 9/12 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Hawk-as-a-starter experiment lasted a couple more seasons before he was demoted to the bullpen, where he flourished.  The Hawk served as the Twins' closer from 2000-2001, but he wasn't that effective and eventually lost the job to Everyday Eddie.  He left via free agency in 2003 and has pitched for six major-league clubs in seven seasons, most recently the Astros.  He is currently a free agent, but the bullpen looks pretty well set, so I doubt the Twins will entertain the idea of bringing him back.

David McCarty:

Perhaps the most famous first-round draft bust in franchise history, McCarty was taken third overall in the 1991 draft, in front of some guy named Manny Ramirez.  The front office pushed him as the superstar who would eventually replace Kent Hrbek, but in reality he was little more than a utility outfielder. It didn't help that he was rushed to the major leagues after Hrbek retired, either.  McCarty wasn't very impressive in his first two seasons with the Twins, posting wOBAs of .240 and .309, and was once again putting up unimpressive numbers in his third season, batting .218/.279/.309 in 61 plate appearances.  The organization decided it had seen enough and dealt McCarty to the Reds in June.  The Twins called up prospect Scott Stahoviak, who didn't really fare much better, batting only .266/.341/.373.  McCarty went on to be a utility player and television commentator for the Red Sox.  The Twins would struggle to find an everyday first baseman until Doug Mientkiewicz took over the job in 1998.

Scott Leius:  

*Sigh* Remember when the Twins had both a great third baseman, and a very good one waiting in the wings?  Well, Leius wasn't it, but he was all the Twins had after Gary Gaetti signed with the Angels in 1990 and before the emergence of Corey Koskie in 1998.  He batted only .247/.55/.389 that year, but was a steady defender by all accounts.  He signed with the Indians after the 1995 season, and spent only three more seasons in the major leagues.  At least he got a World Series ring with the 1991 team.

The bullpen other than Aggie:  Yikes, the relievers as a group posted a 5.17 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 1.52 K/BB ratio.  No wonder there were so few late leads.  Eddie Guardado was sent to the bullpen for good, and he did OK, posting a 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 1.97 K/BB ratio in 46 appearances.  Dave Stevens was about the only other halfway-competent reliever in the 'pen.  Stevens became the Twins' closer after Aggie was sent to Boston, and kept the job even after Aggie came back in 1996. However,  with a dismal strikeout rate (4.66 K/9), he obviously didn't last long and was later claimed off waivers by the Cubs (the team that originally drafted him) in July of 1997.

I Want Placido Polanco on My Team, and Here's Why

He's good at baseball.  More specifically, he's one of the best defensive second basemen in the league, and he certainly deserved to win the Gold Glove this year (Yeah, the voters got one right.  I know, I was shocked too).  I talked a little bit about the problems with UZR in the Michael Cuddyer post (seriously, read David Gorski's comment, he did a much better job explaining it than I did), but that mostly applies to outfielders who play in goofy ballparks.  It seems to be pretty accurate for everyone else, particularly infielders, since park effects don't usually affect them quite as much.  Polanco finished the season a +11.4, making him the best second baseman in all of baseball last year, and is a +55.2 since 2002.  That's pretty darn good.  In contrast, Twins' second-basemen were a putrid -11.1, and that's only after Nick Punto (a solid +3.3) stepped in halfway through the season.  Alexi Casilla (-9.6), Matt Tolbert (-3.4) and Brendan Harris (-1.4) were horrible, although they might suffer from sample size issues (Another issue with UZR altogether: it doesn't fare well with relatively small sets of data.  It takes at least a full season, and sometimes three, to get an accurate measurement).

Polanco is 34 years old, and while he doesn't seem to be slowing down much defensively, his offense might be another matter.  His weighted on-base average has been declining steadily for the past four years, and at .321, is the worst it's been since 2006.  That isn't a terrible mark though, and it's a vast improvement over what the Twins got out of Punto (.295), Casilla (.260), Harris (.295) and Tolbert (.278) last year.  At worst, Polanco will be a slightly below-average hitter while providing well-above average defense, and would still be a huge upgrade over any of the current in-house options. He's also right handed, which should help balance the heavily left-handed lineup (especially since you know Gardy is going to bat him second).

What makes Polanco most attractive, however, is that he projects to be a type B free agent. The Twins would only have to sacrifice a sandwich pick at best if they sign him, and that's only if Detroit offers him arbitration.  Which they probably won't do, since they're apparently trying to cut payroll and aren't going to want to risk giving him a ginormous raise.  Unfortunately, this will also make Polanco very attractive to pretty much every other team looking for middle infield help, and that could push his price tag well out of the Twins' reach.  The free agent class of second basemen is pretty deep this year though, so the Twins have absolutely no excuse to not upgrade the position before spring training.  Even if Polanco isn't it.

Plus his name always makes me think of Placido Flamingo:

In Retrospect: The 2002 Twins

As I promised (threatened?) earlier, I am planning to spend the offseason examining notable Twins teams and former players.  First up, let's look at the 2002 Twins.  It was the first Twins team to make the playoffs since 1991, and the last Twins team to win a postseason series.  They finished the season 94-67, ensuring their second consecutive winning season (it was the first time since 1992 that the Twins posted back-to-back winning seasons).  Like most Twins teams since 1961, they had a pretty mediocre offense and some fantastic starting pitching.  There were some pretty good players on that team, and these are their stories:

Eddie Guardado:

Master of the sloppy save, Everyday Eddie was a failed starter who was thrust into the closer's role when LaTroy Hawkins couldn't hold leads anymore. With a 2.93 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 3.89 K/BB ratio, and 3.46 FIP, as well as setting the previous franchise single-season saves record, Everyday Eddie had one of his best seasons as a reliever. He made his first All-Star appearance that year and finished 15th in MVP voting. He didn't get much consideration for the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year award though, probably because he made fans all over Twins Territory guzzle gallons of the stuff whenever he jogged out of the bullpen (and I think Mariano Rivera won that year anyway, but I'm not going to bother looking it up). Everyday Eddie left via free agency after 2003, leaving the Twins scrambling to find a new closer.  Which leads me to:

A. J. Pierzynski:

Long before he became one of the most beloved players in all of baseball, Anthony John Pierzynski was a brunette the starting catcher for the Twins. He had a pretty good season at the plate that year, batting .300/.343/.439, and he hit what would later become a very important home run in game 5 of the ALDS. The Twins were leading 2-1 in the ninth inning when A. J. sent the first pitch he saw from Billy Koch into the seats, giving them a 4-1 lead (David Ortiz later made it a 5-1 lead with an RBI double). They would need every bit of that insurance too, since Oakland then rallied for three runs off of Everyday Eddie in the bottom of the ninth. Their rally came up a bit short, however, and the Twins clinched their first ALCS appearance since 1991. Pierzynski hung around one more year, then was traded to the Giants for, I don't know, some bats or something.

Joe Mays:

Mays is a dirty word here in Minny was a promising young pitcher who later became a cautionary tale for smaller-market teams looking to lock up young talent.  He had been little more than a replacement-level starter until his breakout 2001 season, in which he posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, despite having one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league and an abysmal 1.92 K/BB ratio.  The Twins rewarded him with a 4-year, $20 million deal in the offseason, even though there was little evidence that Mays would continue to pitch at that level.  He started complaining of elbow pain in early 2002, and his poor numbers reflected it:  a 5.38 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and 1.52 K/BB ratio.  Mays would eventually undergo Tommy John surgery in September of 2003 and miss all of 2004.  He returned to the rotation in 2005, but was so ineffective that he was demoted to the bullpen in favor of rookie Scott Baker.  He was granted free agency and signed with Kansas City in 2006.  He was released on May 16, then later signed with Cincinnati, but was released again after only a month.  He hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2006, and is now out of baseball completely. 

Doug Mientkiewicz:

Kent Hrbek was perhaps the greatest first baseman of the Metrodome era, but M16 was certainly no slouch. He was a decent hitter during his career with the Twins, though he was never an offensive powerhouse like Hrbek (or even Morneau, for that matter). He was, however, a fantastic defensive first baseman. Unfortunately, 2002 was not a great season at the plate for M16. He batted an anemic .261/.365/.392, which for some reason probably cost him his second consecutive Gold Glove award (um, the Gold Glove is supposed to be a defensive award, right?) He didn't fare much better at the plate in 2003, and with the emergence of rookie Justin Morneau, M16 became expendable. He was traded to Boston in 2004 as part of a blockbuster 4-team deal (that sent future former Twin Orlando Cabrera to the Red Sox), though the Twins mostly got salary relief out of that one.

David Ortiz:

Before Big Papi was Big Papi, he was just David Arias: the player to be named later in the Dave Hollins trade.  Ortiz had a pretty good 2002, batting .327/.353/.449, though his relative lack of power was disappointing for a full-time DH.  And while he drove in the decisive run in game 5 of the ALDS, he had a pretty lackluster postseason, slugging only .385 and .375 against Oakland and the Angels, respectively.  Unfortunately, the organization was fed up with Ortiz.  He just wasn't living up to his enormous potential, and they didn't think he ever would.  Ortiz was due a substantial raise in arbitration, and the Twins didn't want to give it to him, so he was released once the season ended.  *Sigh*  and we all know how the rest of the story goes.

Christian Guzman: 

Guzzie was the type of player the Twins were bound to love:  a solid defender who didn't have much power and didn't get on base a whole lot, but could make good contact and had a ton of speed (he lead the league in triples three times).  He was coming off the best season of his career in 2001, when he made the All-Star team and batted .302/.337/.477 with 10 home runs.  Guzzie never again matched those numbers, but he had a decent 2002, batting .273/.292/.385 while providing good defense up the middle.  He left as a free agent after the 2004 season, and sadly the Twins have had trouble filling the shortstop position ever since. 

Brad Radke:

I've written about Bradke a lot already, and this really wasn't his best season.  He struggled with injuries for most of the season, but still put up halfway-decent numbers:  a 4.72 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 3.10 K/BB ratio.  He was pretty good in the postseason, too.   Bradke was 30 years old and had been with the team for eight seasons at this point, and yet this was the first postseason appearance of his career.  He shut down the Athletics in game 5 of the ALDS, giving up only two runs in innings while striking out four.  He made one start in game 4 of the ALCS, giving up only two runs in 6.2 innings, but it was all the Angels would need.  John Lackey stifled the Twins' bats, and the shaky bullpen gave up five runs in the eighth, effectively killing any potential for a late-inning rally by the Twins.  The Angels would go on to win the World Series.  The Twins would go on to capture four more division titles, but lose in the ALDS each time.  Bradke would pitch four more seasons, then retire after suffering a torn labrum.

Eric Milton:

Milton came over to the Twins as part of the Chuck Knoblauch trade, along with Cristian Guzman and Brian Buchanan (Buchanan played on the 2002 team, but was replaced by rookie Michael Cuddyer on the postseason roster and was later traded to the Padres for Jason Bartlett). He was never a superstar but he was a pretty solid starter, and he did throw that no-hitter that one time. Actually, getting hurt was probably the best thing Milton did for the team that year, as it (along with injuries to Brad Radke and Joe Mays) forced Ron Gardenhire to slide Johan Santana into the rotation. He was traded to Philadelphia after the 2003 season for Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. He and M16 were both signed to minor-league deals by the Dodgers earlier this year.

Johan Santana:

Probably the most famous Rule V draft pick in MLB history, Johan spent most of the season in the bullpen. There was pressure from fans to move him to the rotation, but the organization was reluctant to do so.  They didn't think he was ready (he hadn't been very impressive as a starter thus far), and they didn't want to lose the best reliever in a very shaky bullpen.  But when Joe Mays, Brad Radke, and Eric Milton all went down with injuries, they didn't have much of a choice.  It's an understatement to say that Johan blossomed as a starter: he went 7-4 with a 2.67 ERA, striking out hitters at a rate of 10.7 per nine innings while holding opponents to a mere .321 slugging percentage.  He would go on to become the best left-handed pitcher in all of baseball, and one of the best pitchers in franchise history.  He won the Cy Young the next year, and the year after that, and should have won it again in 2005, but did win it in 2006. 

It wasn't really the fact that they made the postseason for the first time in eleven years that made the 2002 squad so special. Nor was it because they were the first really good team that the Twins fielded in a long time. No, they were special because that 2002 season was never supposed to happen in the first place. The owners voted to contract the Twins and the Expos during the 2001 winter meetings and the players were to be scattered in a dispersal draft. Of course, Selig now says that contraction was never going to happen, that it was simply a way for the owners to force revenue sharing, but we didn't know that at the time. We really thought we were about to lose our baseball team. The Hennepin County District Court stepped in and halted the proceedings, granting an injunction (later upheld by the Minnesota Supreme Court) which forced the team to honor its lease at the Metrodome and play out the 2002 season.

Cuddyer is Coming Back

As reported in the Star Tribune, the Twins picked up Michael Cuddyer's option for 2011 (Yes, you read that right.  2011.  It's an interesting clause in his contract).  Predictably, ESPN's Rob Neyer jumped all over the decision:

No, the difference between Cuddyer's salary and his value is not a great deal of money. But the Twins have a history of overspending on decent players while complaining about the high price of truly great players. Remember, it was just a year ago that they couldn't afford Johan Santana but quite happily blew $9 million on Craig Monroe and Livan Hernandez. And if they're not able to keep Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer in the long term, their money mismanagement is simply going to drop them from contention.

Fangraphs' Jack Moore wasn't impressed, either:

It’s very hard for a team to compete when paying a starting player 10.5 million dollars to contribute less than 1 win. It’s even harder for a team in the economic condition that the Twins are. This move seems more like an appeal to the fans rather than an attempt to build a winning team. The better way to appease your fans, however, is to win baseball games. Cuddyer is a slightly above average hitter who is a complete defensive non-factor. He helped the Twins win games as a cost-controlled young player, but the money he will make can help the team much more than he can. The Twins needed to let him go.

Under ordinary circumstances, I would be inclined to agree.  Cuddyer's 3-year, $24 million deal (with that curious option for a fourth year) is probably the worst contract currently on the books.  He's been a good, if inconsistent, hitter for most of his career, but he's one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball (at least according to Ultimate Zone Rating, more on that in a minute), and a smaller-market team can't afford to waste so much money on such a middling player.  But, and I can't stress this enough because so many analysts outside of Minnesota seem to forget this:  the Twins are opening a new ballpark next year and will see an increase in revenue since they won't have to share it with the Vikings anymore.  For the first time in nearly thirty years, the Twins will get to keep whatever money they make from Target Field all to themselves.  I don't know how much payroll is going to increase, but it isn't unreasonable, even in the current economic climate, to expect the 2010 payroll to be somewhere in the $85-95 million range (which is about average for a medium-sized media market like Minneapolis).  Spending nearly $20 million over the next two years for a 2-win (at best) corner outfielder is foolish for a team whose projected payroll is $65 million, but it isn't so bad for an $85-95 million team.  And as Sean at Fire Gardy notes, the current crop of free agent corner outfielders isn't particularly impressive.  It's an aging and declining group for the most part, and while there might be cheaper options available on the free agent market, they probably won't be much of an improvement.  The only way dumping Cuddyer makes sense for the Twins is if they sign Mike Cameron to play center, and then move Denard Span to one of the corner outfield spots.

The biggest knock against Cuddyer's value is that he's such an awful defender, at least according to UZR (his career -34.4 is among the worst of all active players).  And while it's true that Cuddles doesn't have much range, I'm not sure if his defense is really that bad.  One of the biggest problems with UZR (and most advanced fielding metrics, really) is that it doesn't adjust for playing in unique ballparks very well.  Don't get me wrong, UZR is probably the most accurate defensive metric we have and I use it a lot in evaluating player defense, but it does have its limitations.  It doesn't really to know what to do with quirky ballparks, like the Metrodome and Fenway Park, and thus it tends to rate outfielders who regularly play in those parks rather poorly.  For example, Red Sox left fielders have been among the worst in baseball since 2002 (as far back as we have reliable data).  And while Manny Ramirez was playing left for most of that time (and there is little doubt that Manny is a terrible outfielder), it appears that nobody can play left field adequately in Boston.  His replacement, Jason Bay, has seen a steep decline in his defensive numbers since coming to Boston.  Manny on the other hand, has actually improved a bit defensively since moving to LA, though at -15.4 per 150 defensive games, he still isn't very good.  The same thing can be said for the Twins' right fielders (and their outfielders in general, except for Carlos Gomez), who have been mediocre at best over the past eight seasons.  Now, I don't think that Cuddyer is one of the best right fielders in baseball, even accounting for the right field baggy in the Metrodome. He's probably still below average, and it's likely that he really is as bad as UZR makes him look.  But we won't really know until he plays full time in a ballpark that's actually designed for baseball.

Re-Re-Visiting the Santana Trade

Boy, things have changed a lot since the last time I did an analysis of the deal that sent Johan to the other New York team.  Now that Carlos Gomez has been banished to the land of cheese and bratwurst, there really isn't anyone left.  Where did everybody go?

Carlos Gomez:  Well, we know what happened to Go-Go. I do think that this is a good move, though I am really going to miss that goofball. Good job not getting hosed in a trade, Bill Smith!  Now go out and get us a bunch of strikeout pitchers so the steep decline in outfield defense won't be such an issue. 

Philip Humber:  Designated for assignment, now a free agent.  He didn't spend much time with the major-league club, but he was awful.  Humber is living proof that not all Tommy-John surgeries are successful.

Kevin Mulvey:  Claimed on waivers by Arizona, essentially completing the Jon Rauch deal.  Mulvey wasn't terribly impressive in his first stint with the Twins, but he mostly pitched out of the bullpen and didn't get much of a chance to start.  It isn't easy for a full-time starter to transition to the bullpen, especially to perform mop-up duty, but even so I doubt Mulvey will be little more than an average major-league starter.  His minor-league numbers certainly don't suggest otherwise.

Deolis Guerra:  The only prospect from the original trade still on the roster (for now), and the other top prospect (besides Gomez) from the Mets.  He was promoted to AA in July, and finished the season with a 5.17 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.26 WHIP and 2.88 K/BB ratio.  I don't know what to make of Guerra, honestly.  He has spent four years in the low minors so far, which is never a good sign, but he's only 20 years old and is still awfully young for his level.  Eh, if he can fix the problems with his delivery, he might be pretty good.

So, there you have it.  Two seasons later, one prospect has been DFA'd, one traded for a season-and-a-half of a good (but expensive) reliever, one somewhat promising pitching prospect remains in the system, and the centerpiece of the deal traded for a shortstop.  It's obvious that the front office is trying to win now and not waste the Mauer and Morneau years (and hopefully convince their All-Star catcher to stick around), or they probably wouldn't have given up so soon on so many prospects from such a blockbuster trade.  Especially Gomez, an elite defender who could be one of the best center fielders in all of baseball if he were even an average hitter.   Still, a trade that didn't look very good to begin with looks even worse now.

Goodbye, Go-Go. *Sniff* This Blogger is Going to Miss You.

Well, our long search for a starting shortstop is over for the time being.  In a trade that came out of nowhere and shocked the estimated one hundred thousand people living in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the Twins sent Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J. J. Hardy.  I can't say I hate the move.  The Twins desperately needed a shortstop, and Hardy is a good one.  He had a poor 2009 season, but he's batted .262/.323/.482 in four major league seasons and is at least an average defender.  He's also relatively cheap and under team control for the next two years.  And Gomez, well, he had a ton of potential but had yet to fulfill any of it.  He had a lot of range and could track down almost anything hit to the outfield, but that boy could not hit, period.  He couldn't hit for average, he couldn't hit for power, though he could beat out infield hits and occasionally get on base that way.  The flyball pitchers on the staff, namely Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, will almost certainly miss the little scamp.  The groundball pitchers, namely Nick Blackburn and everyone else, not so much. 

This also means that the Twins won't be bringing Orlando Cabrera back.  Not gonna lie:  that makes me a little sad.  I liked O-Cab, even though he couldn't really field the position anymore, and he didn't get on base very much, either.  I would much rather have Hardy at short, since he's younger and cheaper and better in almost every way, but I feel a little bad that O-Cab (and his family!) will have to find his fifth new home in three seasons.  Gosh, what a sucky day for Alexi Casilla, too.  His best friend gets traded and now his mentor probably won't be back, either.

I suppose I have to change the name of my blog now.  Not looking forward to that, although it is my blog and I can call it whatever I want, so I suppose I don't really have to change the name if I don't want to.  I dunno, I'll think about it.  In the meantime, a photo retrospective of some of Go-Go's finest moments in a Twins uniform:

 

 

 

 

and of course,

 

Offseason Outlook

Well that was fun. Yesterday, the Twins outrighted Brian Buscher to AAA, then not five minutes later, it was announced that the Rays were close to dealing Akinori Iwamura. Of course, the Twitterverse blew up with speculation that Aki was coming to Minnesota, but alas, it was not to be. For some reason, he was dealt to the Pirates instead. It's a shame, too, because Aki would have fit in well with the Twins. He can play second and third and, get this, he can hit! Iwamura is a career .281/.354/.383 hitter, so he doesn't have much power but he does get on base a lot. Well, a lot more than Alexi Casilla, anyway. *Sigh* Oh well, there are still plenty of other fish in the sea. The Twins have a lot of work to do in the offseason, and as usual, the Twins' blogosphere is on top of it:

• On a more personal note, I do feel a little bad for Buscher. Getting outrighted/released is a lot like getting fired, and that really sucks. Buscher as a player wasn't really anything special: he made decent contact and drew a lot of walks, but he didn't have much power and couldn't hit lefties. He also was terrible on defense, and since roster space is at a premium, Buscher became expendable. There is a small chance he might remain with the organization, but most likely he'll opt for free agency and a fresh start somewhere else. Best of luck, Justin Morneau's buddy!

• Should the Twins try to retain any of their impending free agents? Twinkie Town weighs the possible risks/rewards of re-signing Joe Crede, Josh Johnson does the same for Carl Pavano, and Nick Nelson for Orlando Cabrera. What do I think? Maybe (if Luke Hughes isn't going to stick at third, if Danny Valencia isn't ready, and if he isn't too expensive), yes (again, if he isn't too expensive), and no (he's declining both offensively and defensively, the Twins can and should do better).

• Granny Baseball examines the nightmare that is the 40-man roster and the prospects that might need protection from the Rule V draft. There's a lot of them, and there are only a few available spaces on the roster. I am really glad that I don't have to make these decisions, I just get to second-guess them.

• One way to clear space on the roster is to simply dump a crapload of dead weight, and Twinkie Town looks at all of the possible non-tender candidates. Barring any sort of trade, Boof and Glen Perkins will probably be back, since the rotation isn't very deep and the Twins are loath to simply let their major-league ready pitching talent walk away. Well except for Jesse Crain, who will receive a $2 million raise in arbitration and I doubt the Twins will want to pay him. Brendan Harris, also due for a substantial raise, is a pretty average hitter and a pretty below-average defender, so it's unlikely he will be back. The Twins will probably go with the younger, cheaper, similarly mediocre Matt Tolbert as a utility infielder instead.

As for this blog, well, I think I'm going to focus more on Twins' history during the offseason, particularly the Senators days. The Twins tend to forget that the organization existed before 1961, and that's too bad because Washington fielded some really good teams (and some really bad ones, too). I'll weigh in if and when the front office actually does something, but I don't have any desire to go through all of the team's needs and which players they should target via trade or free agency. These other blogs (and book!) do such a good job that I'd rather take the lazy way out and just link to them. Besides, I don't think Bill Smith reads this blog, so all of that work would probably be in vain anyway.

Obviously I am an Idiot: More Preseason Predictions Revisited

I went over some of the preseason predictions I made during spring training in an earlier post, and I was pretty much right about all the things that could possibly go wrong during the season. Now it's time to go over what I thought would go well. As you can see, I whiffed on pretty much all of these. One of these days, I'm going to remember that everybody looks good in spring training and I should probably just ignore those numbers.

• Kevin Slowey is the new Brad Radke: If he hadn't gotten hurt, this probably would have been true. His fastball averages a blistering 89 mph, but since he can locate it pretty much wherever he wants to, Slowey is one of the best starters in the rotation. His strikeout rate is pretty average, but he is very stingy about issuing free passes, walking hitters at a rate of 1.5 per nine innings. Thus, his 5.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio is among the best in all of baseball, behind only Roy Halladay (5.94), Dan Haren (5.84) and Javier Vazquez (5.41). As a flyball pitcher who tends to give up a lot of hits, it is obviously in his best interest not to issue too many free passes. 

• Francisco Liriano will emerge as the staff ace: Oops. F-bomb was awful this year, even when you account for a lack of run support and a run of bad luck. Control is often the last thing to come back after Tommy John surgery, and Frankie clearly didn't have it (plus he dealt with some injury issues of his own). He still misses a lot of bats (8.03 K/9), but he also walks a lot of hitters (4.28 BB/9, yikes) and gives up a lot of home runs (12.5 HR/FB%). Obviously, the fan base is frustrated with his struggles and has been demanding a trade, but F-bomb was still a 1.1 WAR pitcher despite putting up such poor numbers. His stock is pretty low right now, and considering that he's still pretty young and cheap, the front office might want to wait and hope his control comes back next year.

• Jason Kubel and Delmon Young are poised to have breakout seasons: Well, I was half right. Jason Kubel did indeed have his breakout season, batting .300/.369/.539 with a career high 28 home runs. Yep, nothing to complain about here, except of course that he can't hit left-handed pitching.
  
  Delmon...well, he got really hot over the last couple of weeks of the season, batting .455/.500/.909 with 3 home runs. He, Joe Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer were obviously huge contributors in the Twins' last minute push to clinch the division. But he was awful before that, batting just .264/.288/.384 with almost no power whatsoever. He sucked again in the postseason, when he had to face better pitchers than the likes of Luke Hochevar and Nate Robertson. I haven't done a breakdown of the Delmon Young trade like I did the Santana trade yet, mostly because I start sobbing uncontrollably whenever I think about it too much. Besides, I don't really need an entire post to say that the Twins got hosed, one paragraph should be sufficient. The Santana trade will probably end up being a bust, but the Delmon Young trade is much, much worse because, not only did the front office deal strength up the middle for a corner outfielder, they didn't even have to make this move in the first place. Yes the outfield was a big question mark after Torii Hunter left, but you can throw a rock and hit about five or six cheap, replacement-level corner outfielders on the free agent market in any given season. They aren't exactly in short supply, unlike decent shortstops and starting pitchers (the trade makes even less sense when you consider how much the Twins struggled to get decent production out of the middle infield before Jason Bartlett came along). And a replacement-level outfielder would be a huge upgrade over what the Twins have been getting out of Delmon. So, good job, Bill Smith, taking one hole and turning it into three.

• Jesse Crain will be dominant: Um, not quite. Crain had a strong second half, but he was so ineffective before the All-Star break that he got demoted to AAA for the first time in his career. Crain is going to earn substantial raise in arbitration, and with the 40-man roster being such a mess, there is a distinct possibility that he will be non-tendered. It's unfortunate, since it's always nice to have another solid arm in the 'pen, but with Joe Nathan and Jon Rauch owed a combined $14.15 million next year, the bullpen is already pretty expensive and those resources could be better spent elsewhere.

• Glen Perkins might not be that bad, either: Ugh, really the best thing you can say about Perk is that he's left-handed. And he did get off to a great start, posting a 2.48 ERA in his first four starts. Unfortunately, he came back down to earth pretty quickly after that, going 5-5 with a 5.89 ERA before landing on the DL with shoulder pain in early August. Yes, he did suffer from shoulder problems for about half the season, but injuries aren't the main reason Perkins was ineffective. The problem is that he has no stuff: his strikeout rate is well below league-average, but unlike teammates Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey, he lacks the pinpoint control necessary to be effective while pitching to contact. Perkins recently filed a grievance against the organization over his service time, and since he was already in Gardy's doghouse for failing to disclose his injury, there is a good chance we have seen the last of the mediocre lefty. His trade value at this point is pretty low however, and it isn't as though the Twins have a glut of major-league ready arms, so perhaps they will give him another chance.

Obviously, I am an Idiot: Preseason Predictions Revisited

Because there wasn't really much else to write about during spring training, I made a number of predictions about the upcoming Twins' season. I outlined what I thought would be some of the greatest strengths and weaknesses of the roster this year, and while I didn't put an exact number on wins and losses, overall I figured this team would be pretty average. And I was right about that part: the Twins did hover around .500 for most of the season before beating up on the Royals and White Sox (while the Tigers were in the midst of an epic collapse) to win the division. Now is as good a time as any to go over those predictions and see just how smart I am. I am a pessimist by nature, so let's start with the bad. I will go over the things I thought would go well in the next post.

• The rotation doesn't have much depth: Hey, I got something right! Of course, it doesn't take a particularly sharp baseball mind to figure out that five starting pitchers isn't enough to carry a team through the season. Starters are probably the most injury-prone players on the roster, and sure enough, three of the original five spent significant portions of the season on the DL. Luckily, nobody blew out a rotator cuff or anything, and the Twins did get solid contributions from Brian Duensing and trade deadline acquisition Carl Pavano. However, waiting until it was too late to address the issue forced the Twins to throw untested rookies Anthony Swarzak and Armando Gabino in the rotation before they were ready (and to keep sending Swarzak out there even though it was obvious he wasn't ready), and it nearly cost them the division.

• Joe Mauer might struggle to stay healthy this year: Heh. Well, he did miss the first month of the season with what is best described as pain in his butt. Then he went on to win his third batting title and set career highs in home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, and general awesomeness. Man Muscles was a key contributor in the late-season push to win the division, something that didn't escape the attention of his peers. He also starred in what has to be my favorite Twins commercial thus far:

• The lineup still doesn't have much power: Well, that's mostly true. The Twins had four players hit 20 or more home runs in a season for the first time in franchise history, but the rest of the lineup is pretty pathetic. The 7-8-9 hitters are about as easy of outs as it gets, and Gardy's insistence on batting a (s)crappy middle infielder in the two-hole usually means the bases are empty when the batting champ steps up to the plate.

• The front office failed to address the bullpen issue: Actually, the bullpen ended up being one of the organization's strengths. The relief corps did get off to an unimpressive start, but after cutting dead weight in the form of Luis Ayala and Sean Henn, and with the additions of Jon Rauch and Ron Mahay, it became a pretty solid group. The Mayor was as reliable as ever, Jose Mijares had a good rookie season, and Joe Nathan was his usual amazing self (I never really realized how good Twitchy has been for the Twins until I saw this). It was quite awhile ago, but Twitchy also starred in my other all-time favorite Twins commercial:

"That's how you win Cy Youngs, baby" Oh man, I miss Johan.

• The infield and outfield defense will be mediocre at best: Hey, I was right again! Although, it doesn't take much prescience to see that great position players will probably continue to be great (barring injury or the inevitable age-related decline) and crappy ones will continue to be crappy (unless, of course, they realize that they suck and decide to do something about it). I know I harp on the defense a lot, but it's important for an organization that favors pitching to contact to field the best defensive team possible. The problem, however, isn't so much that the defense was bad, it's that the worst culprits didn't even make up for it at the plate. The worst defenders on the team, with the exception of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, are also among the worst hitters in the league. It's no wonder then, that this team floundered for most of the season and got swept out of the ALDS.