Phightin' Phils Phorum

Division Rivals: Braves Wheeling and Dealing

The Atlanta Braves have been anything but quiet this offseason as they try to build a roster to dethrone the   Philadelphia Phillies. In addition to the early signing of closer Billy Wagner and set up man Takashi Saito, the team has now added Melky Cabrera and some prospects along with third baseman Troy Glaus. 

The Braves sent, in my opinion, their best starting pitcher Javier Vazquez along with Boone Logan to the New York Yankees for outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitching prospects Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. While the thought of trading a pitcher of Vazquez's caliber may not make sense on the surface, the Braves feel they have more than enough pitching and wanted to add to their lineup. Cabrera brings World Series experience and will give them a top of the order guy while improving the defense in their outfield. 

General Manager Frank Wren said the team was still looking to add power to the lineup and was waiting for the right deal to come along. In the meantime, the Glaus signing adds a guy, if he can stay healthy, that can add 30 homeruns to the lineup. With Chipper Jones already at third, it will be interesting to see where Troy plays. If he is healthy, I am sure they will find him at least 450 at bats.

The Braves have made themselves a much improved team. While on paper the Phillies are still better, the Braves are now a solid favorite to finish second and be right in contention for the Wild Card. It is a nice roster that Wren has put together for Bobby Cox's final season.

How Sweep It Is!

After one of the worst stretches of play for the Philadelphia Phillies in my lifetime, it was nice to see them sweep their hated rivals the New York Mets. Now I heard all of the excuses from Mets fans about injuries and the Phillies only beating their Triple-A team. But the facts are we won all three games including beating Johan Santana in a game where Joe Blanton out pitched him. Anyway you look at it, this was a great weekend for the Phillies after 3 weeks of misery.

Deeper than just this weekend though was the truth about our team staring us in the face. When Jimmy Rollins performs the team wins. Rollins appears to have turned a corner, found himself, or whatever tired cliche you want to use. Maybe it is the Michael Jackson music when he comes to the plate. I really do not care so long as he continues to contribute. When Rollins gets on base, the Phillies win games.

The other truth for our team is that when Brad Lidge shortens the game, the Phillies win. Lidge was unhitible in his last two games and looks to be healthy again. A healthy Lidge means a shorter game. Maybe now, finally, we can have the bullpen back the way Charlie Manuel likes it with J.C. Romero and Ryan Madson being the "Bridge to Lidge".

The weekend was encouraging. Not just from the sweep perspective but also from a perspective of the team looking like they are getting it together again. They need to continue to focus on one game at a time and win each series they play. The sweep may have been what the Phillies needed to get back on a roll!

Phillies On The Skids, What About The Rest of The N.L. East?

When a first place team goes 1-8 on a homestand, the second and third place teams need to take advantage and either take the division lead or make up substantial ground. That did not happen to the Philadelphia Phillies. After having one of the worst homestands in franchise history (and that is saying a lot), the Phillies still find themselves 2 games ahead of the New York Mets, 3 games ahead of the Florida Marlins, and 4 1/2 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves.

While the Marlins have narrowed the gap, the Mets have let a golden opportunity slip by them. They were 4 games out of first place when the Phillies hit the skids and could only make up 2 games. While the Phillies problem has been lack of starting pitching depth, a tired bullpen, and the loss of Brad Lidge, the Mets problems are much deeper.

The Mets have the third fewest homeruns in major league baseball. Their lineup lacks a left handed power bat and they barely have major league players in the corner outfield positions. After Johan Santana their rotation is a question mark. They made more offseason mistakes bring J.J. Putz who was damaged goods and not making the move for another bat. While K-Rod has stabilized the ninth inning for them, they still lack the depth it takes to win.

What does this mean in the division? The Phillies are still in first place in spite of themselves. It stands to reason that if Brad Lidge comes back healthy and Raul Ibanez returns, it may be enough to win the division. If the Phillies can land a much needed starter and reliever, they could separate themselves from the rest of the division. The bottom line? The competition is not a fierce as we first thought.

Phillies Beat Mets, Lead N.L. East by 4 Games!!!

Another hard fought game and another victory for the Philadelphia Phillies in New York. For the second night in a row the Fightins took it to the Mets in extra innings to win two out of three in the series and return home with an incredible 7-3 road trip. Arguably they could have been 10-0 but no one will complain about 7-3.

The Mets showed why they are in second place giving the Phillies a real fight in each game. They also showed why they were in second place by not being able to get the much needed wins against the first place Phillies. They now trail Philadelphia in the standings by 4 games. 

While the Mets bullpen is improved, their lineup is not nor is their clutch hitting. In contrast, Raul Ibanez showed again that he is the MVP of the first half of the season and the best pick up for any team in the off season. The difference between the contenders and pretenders.

The Phillies return home to face the Red Sox in interleague play and hope to cool off Terry Francona's squad.

The Rivalry Continues...

What makes a rivalry fun? Two teams, both good, that play games that feel like the playoffs every time they face off. Fans on each other with every change of the lead. Sometimes one team dominating the other, then the domination completely changing directions. Add it all up and you have the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets' Turnpike Series.

As rivalries go, this has become one of the best in American sports. With the 2007 and 2008 pennant races and the proximity of the two teams, this rivalry has set itself up to be one that surpasses most others in intensity. While no rivalry can be compared to the Yankees and Red Sox or Dodgers and Giants, this one could fall right behind it.

It has taken a long time for the Turnpike Series to come to fruition. When the Mets were good in the late 60's and early 70's, the Phillies were not. In the late 70's and early 80's the Phillies were the powerhouse of the league while the Mets were dismal. The late 80's came and roles reversed again. The 90's, other than 1993 were owned by the Braves as each team floundered in their own way. Now both teams are good. Both teams are spending money. And, in part because of the rivalry, both teams are generating more revenue. The Phillies and Mets are far above the other three teams in the National League East in spending. If both teams can keep the rivalry going (and all signs point to this being an easy thing to do) they will be able to outspend the rest of the division and have the added incentive of beating the other team when putting their teams together. Nothing beats competition to make your product better.

What makes this rivalry special? The proximity of the two cities is a big part of it. The fact that both teams share area's where there are fans from both teams is a huge part of it. There is nothing like going to a sports bar and having fans from both teams there to heat up the rivalry. Even better is seeing a father with two sons. One with a Phillies shirt, one with a Mets jersey. Fans can go to either ballpark without much trouble (other than from the opposing fans). This obviously also heats up the rivalry. There is nothing worse than your team losing at home when a good number of fans from the other team are there.

Another big part of this rivalry has been the recent history of the two teams. The Mets collapse of 2007 and 2008 combined with the surge of the Phillies and the fact that the Phillies won the World Series has intensified the rivalry very quickly. While the Yankees and Red Sox have been going at it for nearly 90 years, the intensity felt at games between these two teams and their fans feels very much the same.

The hope for Phillies and Mets fans is that this rivalry will continue for years to come. The competition between the two teams will make each team strive to be better and leave the rest of the division, and perhaps the league behind. Wouldn't it be fun to see the Phillies and the Mets playing each other in the NLCS? Talk about the Turnpike Series coming to fruition!

For full coverage of the Phillies Mets rivalry check out Mr Mets Daily and the Turnpike Series.

Johan Out, For How Long?

The New York Mets have some real trouble! Starter Johan Santana is set to miss opening day and maybe more as the staff ace has come up with a stiff elbow. His doctor has called it a "irritated triceps tendon" and it was serious enough for Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel to have a 40 minute meeting with him about it.

The injury could amount to be nothing, but if he feels discomfort tomorrow he will be sent for more tests. The symptoms are the same as many pitchers that end up needing Tommy John surgery. If that happens Johan will miss all of 2009 and much of 2010. He also could try to pitch through it and chances are that will make him less effective. Either way, the Mets may have big problems in 2009.

The full story can be found at Turnpike Series and Mr Mets Daily.

Don't cry Mets fans!!!

National League East Preview: New York Mets

The New York Mets have put new meaning to the word "chokers". In 2007 they looked the part of a team that could repeat in the NL East. Instead they took part in the biggest collapse in major league history. In 2008 they trailed the Phillies most of the season and seemed to get hot at the right time taking the lead in the East in August. History repeated itself though and the choker label reared its ugly head again as the Mets lost the division by 3 games.

In 2009, the Mets need to find at least 4 more wins if they hope to dethrone the 2 time National League East Champion Phillies. They sured up the back end of their bullpen by adding Fransisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz but did they do enough?

Starting with the bullpen, the eighth and ninth innings certainly look more secure with Putz and K-Rod but what else do they have in the pen? They traded Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoenweis away and have no other depth. Pedro Feliciano and Duaner Sanchez, who both had ERA's over 4, are the only solid candidates to fill out the pen. Sure Billy Wagner says he is coming back but can you really bank on that? The Mets will overuse Putz and K-Rod and still not have the bullpen they need to win.

The Mets starting rotation is adequate but also third best in the division behind the Phillies and Braves. Johan Santana is one of the top starters in the game and the 30 year old will be the stopper at the top of the rotation. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are both number 3 or 4 pitchers leaving the Mets without a true number 2 in their rotation. Oliver Perez is a number 4 or 5 while Tim Redding is a number 5 pitcher. The Mets have some depth this year with rookie Jonathan Niese and the low risk high reward signings of pitchers like Freddie Garcia and Livan Hernandez. Bottom line is the rotation should be good but below the rotations of the Phillies and Braves.

The story in New York right now is that Jerry Manuel is contemplating using Jose Reyes as the team's number 3 hitter. This would move Luis Castillo to the leadoff spot and cause the middle of the lineup to look like this:

3. Reyes
4. Wright
5. Beltran
6. Delgado

This is a nice middle of the line up and should produce some runs. Reyes is not a typical leadoff hitter and would probably better serve the team in the 3 spot. The issue is can Luis Castillo really still be a quality leadoff hitter? His legs only allowed him to play in 87 games in 2008 where the 33 year old only hit .245. Then, who hits number 2? The unproven Daniel Murphy?

When you look deeper at the Mets your realize this is a team with some really nice players but they lack depth. Both corners of the outfield and catcher are question marks at best. There is no bench to speak of. If a starting player gets hurt, there is no back up plan. Even the middle of the lineup is questionable as Carlos Delgado will be 37 and Carlos Beltran has had knee problems.

The Mets lack the depth to play a full 162 game schedule. They will be competitive and if everything goes perfectly for them they could win the division, but how often does that happen over a long season? My prediction for the Mets is that they will again be in the 85 to 89 win range and either barely win the wild card or just miss the playoffs.

National League East Preview: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves offered Tom Glavine a contract and a chance to return for another season with the team. Glavine's offer is only for one season and worth only $1 to $2 million but what a number 5 pitcher the 300 game winner would be. With the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets making most of the news in the division, the Braves have flown under the radar and quietly put together one of the best rotations in the National League.

The rotation will include Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Javier Vasquez, Kenshin Kawakami, and a stable full of possibilities for the number 5 spot. If Glavine is not signed, the team will look internally at Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Tommy Hanson and James Parr. In addition, they have Tim Hudson recovering from surgery. Hudson is due back in late July or early August and could provide a big boost to this already formidable rotation.

While pitching win pennants and the Braves seem good in the rotation, they are less solid in their lineup. They still do not know who their center or left fielders will be and GM Frank Wren says the team only has $6 to $7 million more to spend this offseason. This leaves the team's options very slim. The Braves have been rumored to be interested in free agent and former Phillie Bobby Abreu and have been linked in trades for Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady. Any of these options will be in the $5 million range.

In the infield, Chipper Jones leads the way and while he showed he is still a top hitter, his health has been in question. The rest of the infield is young . Kelly Johnson looks to be the team's leadoff hitter but he is far from perfect for that role. Casey Kotchman will enter his third full season and while he is serviceable, 14 homeruns is not enough production for a first baseman.

Overall the lineup and bench lack depth and the Braves may see themselves losing a bunch of one run games where they waste solid pitching performances. The bullpen lacks an anchor and unless someone steps up, they will have a hard time closing out games. Bottom line, expect a solid rotation in Atlanta with a lineup and bullpen that are not able to produce enough to keep the team in the pennant race. I predict 79 to 83 wins for the Braves.

National League East Preview: Florida Marlins

Charlie Manuel said during Spring Training last year that the Florida Marlins were going to be a much improved club. I don't think he thought the Marlins would be in the thick of the pennant race until the late summer though. Built on young talent, the Marlins are always a tough opponent and 2009 will see some new prospects get a chance to prove themselves.

The Marlins lack of spending however, makes me believe the team will take a step back this year and not be quite as good. With the key losses of Scott Olson, Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, and Josh Willingham, they will have to hope that their next crop of young stars can fill their shoes.

Gaby Sanchez is the top prospect to watch for this year as he is the front runner to replace Jacobs at first base. Sanchez is a complete hitter that is expected to hit for average, walk, and hit 20 to 25 homeruns a season. He is considered a run producer by the team's scouts.

Chris Coghlan, Michael Stanton and Matt Dominguez and also players to watch for. Coghlan can play second and third base and has a decent shot of making the team while Stanton, an outfielder, and Dominguez, a third baseman, are more likely to spend the season maturing in their farm system. One or both could make a difference as a mid season call up though.

The Marlins will rely on a very young but high ceiling pitching staff. Led by Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad, fans will learn new names like Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Tucker, Rick VandenHurk, and others. Their young bullpen will also get a chance to prove themselves and could become quite formidable.

The Marlins will have an uphill battle to be as competitive as they were last year. Especially in a division with the Phillies and Mets, their chances of making the playoffs is slim. But this is a team that can win 78-83 games and perhaps knock the Phillies or Mets out of the wild card race. The Marlins will again be a fun team to watch.

To read the predictions for the Washington Nationals, click here.

National League East Preview: Washington Nationals

Phightin' Phils Phorum will be doing a review of each team in the National League East discussing team transactions and their outlook for the season. A more in depth review will be given per team the last week of Spring Training with predictions for the season. We will start with the Washington Nationals, then the Florida Marlins, followed by the Atlanta Braves, then the New York Mets, and finishing up with the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

The Nationals finished the 2008 season with a dismal 59-102 record. Long forgotten was the team's 3-1 start as the season went downhill quickly after being swept by the Cardinals. The worst record in baseball will help the team with the number 1 draft pick and ownership seems willing to spend money so the long term outlook may be bright in the nation's capital.

Washington tried to make a splash in the offseason as they got into the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes but the New York Yankees walked away the winners there. Still, the fact that the level of commitment is there shows fans and the N.L. East that the Nats will not be doormats forever.

For now the team should concentrate on player development and build around their young core of Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, John Lannan, and newly acquired Scott Olsen. Cristian Guzman has proven to be solid at shortstop and is the type of supporting cast this team needs.

The team freed itself of some dead weight in October as Pete Orr and Chad Cordero refused minor league assignments and are free agents. Orr resigned later to a minor league deal. Ryan Wagner, Ryan Langerhans, Lavale Speigner accepted minor league assignments while the team activated a host of players from the disabled list including Nick Johnson, Justin Maxwell, Wily Mo Pena, Ronnie Belliard, Matt Chico, Jesus Flores, Shawn Hill and Austin Kearns. Healthy seasons from these players will be a huge help for the club.

Dmitri Young was outrighted in November to triple-A (he was given an invite to Spring Training) and the team signed a bunch of minor league free agents that have a chance to make the team in Spring Training. December saw the Nats non tender Tim Redding and release Jesus Colome while they signed Daniel Cabrera to a one year deal.

Josh Towers was signed to a minor league deal in January with the hope that the former Colorado Rockie can make the team. It looks now as though the Nationals will not make a big signing this offseason and will let a lot of younger players compete for spots in the rotation.

I think the Nationals approach is the right one. While the fans surely wanted to have Teixeira in the middle of their lineup, the team would still not have enough talent to compete in the division. The Nats are better off building from within, saving their money, then making bigger acquisitions when they are only a few players away from being competitive. Right now they are at least 6 players short and possibly as much as 8 from being able to compete.

My early prediction is that this team will be improved in 2009 and could win as many as 68-70 games.