Gridiron Guru

College Football New Year's Bowl Picks From the Guru

Regular season record 36-25 (+20 units)   Missouri (-6.5) Navy Texas Bowl 3:30 12-31-09   Missouri and Navy both had pretty good runs this season.  The Tigers have won 4 of 5 down the stretch by averaging 36 points a game in those games.  Navy finished the season by beating Notre Dame and Army. Big losses to Hawaii and Temple hurt them at the end though.  Missouri lives and dies through the air.  If quarterback Blaine Gabbert is on, then this team is explosive.  When he's not though (i.e Nebraska game), this team can get beat.  Navy was 4th in the nation in rushing this year.  Their QB Ricky Dobbs set a new record by running for 24 Touchdowns by a QB.  So who's D will step up?  Missouri arguably played the tougher schedule, but Navy's D was ranked 36 overall.  Missouri will probably be without their 2nd best receiver here, so look for the Midshipmen to key on Danario Alexander here.  I see a close game here with Navy controlling the clock.  Take the points and the Midshipmen. ( 2 units)   Oregon (-3.5) Ohio Rose Bowl Pasadena 5PM Tomorrow   The Granddaddy of them all.  You know I have to chime in on this one.  Both teams arrive to Cali with 10-2 records, but with disappointment that they weren't better.  Oregon was some people's national champion pick in pre season.  Ohio State had high hopes in Terrelle Prior's second season.  Early losses killed their championship hopes and mid-season let downs by both teams led them to the Rose Bowl.  Oregon's offense is a high powered machine.  Led by QB Masoli, they are 6th in the nation I running and average over 37 points a game.  State doesn't stack up as well on offense ( 29.2 Points a game), but Prior can run well out of the QB position.  The key will be how well State's defense steps it up.  They were 5th in he nation overall. They will have to neutralize Oregon.  I don't see that happening here.  The speed of the PAC 10 will prevail.  Ohio State won't be able to keep up.  Give away the points (0.5 units)   Cincinnati (+12.5) Florida Allstate Sugar Bowl  8:30pm Tomorrow   Could we have matched up 2 other teams with more controversy coming into a bowl game.  Cincy lost their coach to ND and Florida almost lost theirs to health issues?  Cincy ran the table this year, but got shafted for a national championship cause of the BS, I mean BCS.  Florida comes in off probably the most disappointing loss they have ever had.  Alabama handed it to 'em in the SEC championship and now they have to play in "the Lowly" Sugar bowl.  My mind wonders how much preparation both coaches have put into this game?  Urba Meyer almost died and all of Cincy's coaches are getting hired away to other schools.  We have to look at other factors to decide this game.  The Bearcat's offense can score without a coach.  It looks like a sandlot team.  The average almost 39 points a game.  Florida's O is a little more methodical.  They can run it and control the clock.  Both teams were 6-6 ATS this season, so no advantage there.  12 points is always a lot in a major bowl game.  Take it and the Bearcats here (1 unit)   WVU (-3) Florida State Gator Bowl 1pm Tomorrow   One of he BEST coaches ever, Bobby Bowden will be coaching his last game against his former school in WVU.  The Seminoles were expected to contend for the conference, but did not live up to that and finished 6-6 this year.  WVU pulled off a great late season run to end 9-3 and second place in the Big East.  The Noles will be without their QB Ponder here.  Frosh EJ Manuel will have to step in verses a good Mountaineer D.  This game comes dow to the Noles D verses Noel Devine.  The Noles were 98th on D, so Devine will have a big game.  I can see them being pumped up to give Bowden a great send-off, but WVU will take over in the second half to cover here.  Give up the 3 and take WVU (0.5 units)   I like a couple Saturday games as well.  I will have 'em for you tomorrow.  Go with these games the next 2 days.  Look for my pro picks tomorrow as well.  Until then...   All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

NFL Week 17 Quick Picks From The Guru

I've come to realize that I hate when teams sit their star players.  I hate it, I hate it!  There, I said it!  Makes no sense to me.  You have to play to stay fresh.  Especially on offense.  Do you really think Peyton Manning would get injured?  He's never missed a game and doesn't even get sacked!  That's why I hate the last week of the season every year.  Buffalo is favored by a touchdown this week against Indy.  Really?  I wish they would play the starters the whole game and win by 100.  You know that's not going to happen though.  We will have to suffer through watching some guy named Painter attempt to play quarterback.  There are a few games on the schedule with meaning though.  They are really the games I'm looking at this week.  I will have my top picks by Saturday morning.  For now, here are my quick picks!  Good luck!

Home Team	Visitor	Winner
Buffalo	Indianapolis	Buffalo
Carolina	New Orleans	Carolina
Cleveland	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Detroit	Chicago	Chicago
Houston	New England	Houston
Miami	Pittsburgh	Miami
Minnesota	NY Giants	Minnesota
St. Louis	San Francisco	San Francisco
Tampa	Atlanta	Tampa
Arizona	Green Bay	Arizona
Denver	Kansas City	Denver
Oakland	Baltimore	Baltimore
San Diego	Washington	San Diego
Seattle	Tennessee	Tennessee
Dallas	Philly	Philly
NY Jets	Cincinnati	NY Jets
Favorite	Underdog	Winner
Buffalo (-7)	Indy	Buffalo
Carolina (-7)	New Orleans	Carolina
Cleveland (-1.5)	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Chicago (-3)	Detroit	Chicago
Houston (-8)	New England	New England
Pittsburgh (-3)	Miami	Miami
Minnesota (-8.5)	NY Giants	NY Giants
San Francisco (-7.5)	St. Louis	St. Louis
Atlanta (-2.5)	Tampa	Tampa
Arizona (-3.5)	Green Bay	Arizona
Denver (-13)	Kansas City	Kansas City
Baltimore (-10.5)	Oakland	Oakland
San Diego (-3.5)	Washington	San Diego
Tennessee (-4.5)	Seattle	Tennessee
Dallas (-3)	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
NY Jets (-10)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati

I will have my weekend College Bowl picks up later on today or tomorrow morning, plus NFL picks by Saturday morning.  Check back early and often.  Until then....

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

Monday Night Pro and College Preview and Picks from The Guru

Minnesota -7.5 at Chicago   Can anyone tell me the last time Chicago covered a game?  I thought so!  They have been horrible this year.  Jay Cutler is a sitting duck.  I think he throws some balls just so he can stay alive!  They have no line, which means no running game.  That translates into disaster this year.  Minnesota has been lacking in the running game lately too.  AP has been limited recently and it's shown in Minnesota's output.  I would normally pick Chicago in this situation because they are at home and have faced this team, but I think they are ready to start their off-season already.  Minnesota has lots to still play for and Brett Farve is pissed at his coach.  Give up the points and take the Vikings to cover (2 units)   Texas A&M (+7) Georgia   Independence Bowl 5pm Today   Both of these teams were subpar this year on D.  A&M was last in conference and Georgia didn't fare much better in theirs.  The two teams were much better on offense though.  A&M was 5th in the nation in total offense.  Georgia, on the other hand is looking to feast on the Aggies weaker D.  The Bulldogs finished the season strong, but will have a complete overhall in this game in their coaching department.  They fired 4 of their coaches prior to this bowl.  This could lead to confusion in their reads, which QB Jerrod Johnson can exploit.  Georgia has a really strong running game this year.  They were able to run through Georgia Tech in their last game.  They will do more of the same here versus the nations 107th ranked defense.  What I am looking for in this game is a huge offensive explosion on both sides.  Vegas has the O/U at 67. Wow!  Everyone has this game as Georgia to cover, including The Cappers that I know, plus some I follow.  I'm taking the other side.  Take the points here and A&M.  (1/2 unit )

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

NFL Week 17 Early Lines from The Guru

Here are the early lines for this week.  Some Lines are off due to team situations, but I've put last available line that was posted.  Check back for updates.  HOME TEAMS IN CAPS

Indy	-3	BUFFALO	off
CAROLINA	-7	New Orleans	off
CLEVELAND	-3	Jacksonville	38.5
DALLAS	-3	Philly	48.5
Chicago	-4	DETROIT	off
HOUSTON	-7	New England	45.5
MIAMI	pk	Pittsburgh	off
MINNESOTA	-4.5	NY Giants	off
NY JETS	-8	Cincinnati	36.5
San Fran	-7	ST. LOUIS	off
TAMPA	-1	Atlanta	41.5
ARIZONA	-3	Green Bay	44.5
DENVER	-12	Kansas City	38
Baltimore	-10	OAKLAND	38
SAN DIEGO	-7	Washington	off
Tennessee	-5	SEATTLE

No Monday night game this week.  All games are being played this Sunday.

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

Saturday Bowl Previews and Picks from the Guru

Regular Season 36-25 (+20 Units)

Bowl Season 2-1 (+1.5 Units)

 

Emerald Bowl 8PM AT&T Park San Fran

Boston College (+9) USC

 

To the average fan, this game looks like a blow out on paper.  Perennial Powerhouse USC verses a bunch of freshman in Boston College.  Problem is, this isn't your normal USC team.  8-4 record and they lost 3 of their last 5 games.  This is the first time in 7 years that they aren't in a BCS bowl game.  BC comes in winners of 3 out of the last 4, finishing 2nd in the ACC Atlantic.  BC played a soft schedule though. They actually got killed in their only game against a top 25 team.  I'm not worried about that stat though.  USC will probably be without Joe McKnight in this game and even if he's in, it's just going to be a distraction.  This game will come down to who wants it more.  BC is young and hardworking.  They are out to prove they belong.  USC can't be happy about some crappy bowl game before January.  Look for them to be flat.  I love BC to cover here.  Take the points. ( 1 Unit)

 

 

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl 1pm Ford Field

 

Ohio (-3) Marshall

 

I love Little Caesars pizza every once in a while.  $5 bucks for a whole pie.  How can you go wrong.  Oh wait, we aren't talking about pizza, are we?  Ohio comes into this game on fire.  Head Coach Frank Solich knows how to coach.  I loved him at Nebraska!  I don't think he got a fair shake there.  Ohio finished 2nd in the MAC and won 7 of 9.  Marshall was a disappointing 6-6 and got blown out their last game.  Their head coach quit after that game and now have a new coach for the final game. You know I think this would be ok if he coached  in the system, but Doc Holliday comes from WVU to try to coach this game.  This will lead to major confusion.  Ohio led the nation in turnovers, so look for them to be ready if the Herd breaks down during the game.  Ohio was a cover machine this year.  5-2 ATS recently.  Look for that to continue here.  I see blow out.  Give up the points and take the Bobcats. ( 3 units)

NFL week 16 Free Picks from The Guru

Last week 2-4 (-6 units)

Season 49-35-1 (+ 37 Units)

 

Last week was truly a strange week for me pick wise.  I wrote my column up last Thursday morning.  6 picks that I thought were money.  Then came Sunday morning.  For those of you who don't know me, I take tons of phone calls, texts and emails from friends and family looking for picks.  So when crunch time came I told everyone to take Atlanta, Miami, Oakland, Detroit, Philly and Washington.  That's a 4-2 week, net 6 units.  Problem was I didn't go back and change my site picks.  I got caught up in the moment, plus I was just lazy.  At least I got it half right, I think?  I know my man Dom made out like a bandit.  You owe me a drink my friend! 

 

The best part about this week's games is the fact that there's one on Christmas day.  I'm always so bored after you open presents.  There's nothing else to do, plus most places are closed anyway, so it will be nice to watch a game while I'm talking about the same old shit to my relatives.  That takes me to my first pick.

 

San Diego (+2) at Tennessee

 

I've actually been to Tennessee to watch a football game and although Tennessee has some of the nicest fans in the league, they can get rather rowdy!  San Diego has won about 300 games in a row and has to be the hottest team right now, but if they are, Tennessee is the second hottest.  The game features Philip Rivers passing verses Chris Johnson's Running.  Rivers torched Cincinnati last week and the Titan's pass defense isn't all that great.  I see San Diego as the better team, but that doesn't mean a win.  They are playing on a short week, Christmas day on the road.  I feel this is a perfect spot for Tennessee.  I also love the fact that everyone is on the Chargers here.  Give away the points and take the Titans (3 units)

 

Houston (+3) at Miami

 

The Fish have been good to me this season.  It seems like they are in every game.  As I said in my opening, they won me money last week even though I didn't write about it.  Their whole game plan this year revolves around their running attack opening up lanes for Chad Henne.  He has looked wonderful this year.  He really is their future.  Their problem has been their secondary.  Teams are throwing all over them.  Enter Matt Schaub.  Who's been hotter than him the past two weeks?  If he's on this Sunday, watch out.  Miami has been great at home this year, but Houston is even better when playing 2 road games in a row. ( 8-1 ATS).  I also like Houston when they are playing meaningful games.  75% of the public is on Miami, so I'm taking the points and the Texans (1 unit)

 

Jacksonville (+10) at New England

 

I listened to the Jags/Indy game on my way home from the Penguins game last Thursday night and thought to myself that the Jags offense has hit their stride.  They are fighting for a Wildcard spot and need this game.  New England, on the other hand doesn't.  I look at this game really without looking at X's and O's at all.  The Jags play well when they need to, especially a big underdog and New England can rest players if they want.  This is too many points to give up.  Take the Jags and the points here. ( 3 units)

 

Detroit (+14) at San Francisco

 

Big week for the 49ers.  Even though they can't make the playoffs, they are looking to finish at .500 for coach Mike Singletary.  It looked like they were a sure lock for the post season after starting 3-1, but suffered through a tough mid season stretch.  Alex Smith has played fair this season.  He's won when you think he should win, but then looks terrible when you think he should lose.  The Lions are the Lions!  They don't even have a starting QB named yet for this game?  I feel it's going to be Drew Stanton, who's waited 2 years for this day!  If it is, I love Detroit here.  Everyone knows my feelings for new starters in their first game.  I also don't know how you the Niners are giving 12.  They haven't scored more than 24 points in like 2 months and just got knocked out of the playoffs last week.  They are 5-2 ATS at home this year, but they haven't had to cover 12.  If Stanton does start, you might want to make this more units, but for now, take the points and the Lions (1 unit)

 

Denver (+7) at Philly

 

I know what you are thinking?  Philly again?  It seems like every time I pick Philly to win, they lose and every time I pick them to lose, they win.  Seriously!  So you might want to fade my pick this week?  Haha, just kidding.  Here's how I look at this one.  Denver has played well recently when they are expected not to.  Philly plays like shit when they are expected to play great!  B-Dawk is coming back to Philly too.  Denver is fighting for a playoff spot and Philly can sit back this week.  Plus Denver was embarrassed last week.  Look for a rebound here.  I like the points and Denver.  Livin' and Dyin' by the Birds again (4 units)

 

Dallas (-7) at Washington

 

This line started at 3 but ballooned to 7 after the Skins got killed Monday. (yeah I'm embarrassed for that pick)  Dallas is coming off their biggest win in forever when they knocked off the undefeated Saints.  The Skins aren't the team you saw Monday.  No one is that bad.  It was just one game.  Same thing with Dallas.  They aren't that good.  The last time these 2 met it was a 7-6 defensive slugfest, so both teams know what to expect.  If this line was still 3, i might consider Dallas, but to be giving 7 on the road is ridiculous!  Dallas is still the same team with no leadership that can't win in December.  How is it that 82% of the public is backing Dallas here.  Again, 1 game doesn't define how good you are.  Please take the points and the Skins (4 Units)

 

I will be back tomorrow morning with at least 2 more bowl picks for the weekend games.  I want to wish everyone Happy Holidays.  I hope Santa brings you everything you deserve. 

Until then.....

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

Hawaii Bowl Nevada SMU Preview and Pick from the Guru

Regular Season 36-25 (+20 Units) 57%
Bowl Season 1-1 (-0.5 Units)
 
Nevada (-15) SMU
 
I was shocked yesterday to see how many people were on my site.  I can't believe so many people are into worthless College football bowl games?  I guess sometimes there's nothing better to watch on TV.  Tonight's Hawaii Bowl falls into that catagory.  It's either this or Christmas Story for the hundreth time this week.  I got a text last night from my old friend Ethan Leonard.  Always great to hear from him.  I haven't seen him in nearly 2 years.  Always great to hear from you friend.  I won him some quality money too last night.  Glad you listened.  Tonight's game isn't nearly as hard to pick as last night.  Nevada started this season horrible, but has really turned it around.  They are 6th in the nation in scoring and have the top running game in the land.  They were 7-1 in conference and are looking to finish this season on a complete high note.  Chris Ault is argueably one of the best coaches in the nation too. The problem is their D.  It's ranked 94th in the country.  Something that SMU can exploit.  As most of you know SMU coach June Jones is coming home (well, sort of?) back to Hawaii where he went to a BCS bowl game.  Obviously SMU isn't a BCS team, but getting to a bowl this year was a major accomplishment.  SMU can air the ball out.  5th in the nation in that catagory.  Basically what this game comes down to is who gets the ball last?  Lots of huge plays tonight and 2 gassed defenses.  Look for a real high scoring game.  I like the karma of June Jones being in familar territory and all those points.  15 is a lot.  Take 'em and the Mustangs. (2 units)

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

Poinsettia Bowl Utah v. Cal Preview and Pick from the Guru

Regular Season 36-25 (+20 Units)
Bowl Picks 0-1 (-1 unit)
 
Cal Bears (-4) Utah Utes
 
Here's another Pac 10 Team playing a weaker conference in a bowl game.  I thought my theory about this was spot on last night and I got crushed!   Cal was a lot of people's pre-season Pac 10 winner this year, but injuries and embarrassing play left them with 4 losses and a crappy bowl game. Utah is coming off of a loss to BYU in their last game.  Both teams are really evenly matched up.  Both offenses average 29.2 points a game.  Utah's D gives up less points though.  My pick is coming down to which team is more consistent.  Cal can score tons of points, but also can lay an egg.  The Utes have played every game hard.  If Cal was healthy and had Jahvid Best, this would be an easy pick.  Since they don't, I'm taking the points and the Utes here. (0.5 units)

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

NFL Week 16 Quick Picks From The Guru

I can't believe how hungover I am this morning.  Way too many Christmas parties this year.  I can't wait 'til Friday just to relax.  I'm still not done my shopping yet either.  I have a feeling I'll be going down to the last minute before I'm completely done.  Here's my quick picks for the week.  I will be back later today with a Bowl pick and tomorrow with my NFL picks...

Home Team	Visitor	Winner
Tennessee	San Diego	Tennessee
Green Bay	Seattle	Green Bay
Cleveland	Oakland	Oakland
Cincinnati	Kansas City	Cincinnati
Atlanta	Buffalo	Atlanta
Miami	Houston	Houston
NY Giants	Carolina	NY Giants
New Orleans	Tampa	New Orleans
New England	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	Pittsburgh
Philly	Denver	Philly
Arizona	St. Louis	Arizona
San Fran	Detroit	San Fran
Indy	NY Jets	Indy
Washington	Dallas	Dallas
Chicago	Minnesota	Minnesota
Favorite	Underdog	Winner
Tennessee (-3)	San Diego	Tennessee
Green Bay (-14)	Seattle	Seattle
Cleveland (-3.5)	Oakland	Oakland
Cincy (-14)	Kansas City	Kansas City
Atlanta (-9)	Buffalo	Buffalo
Miami (-3)	Houston	Houston
NY Giants (-7)	Carolina	NY Giants
New Orleans (-14)	Tampa	Tampa
New England (-7.5)	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Pittsburgh (-2.5)	Baltimore	Pittsburgh
Philly (-7)	Denver	Denver
Arizona (-14)	St. Louis	Arizona
San Fran (-12)	Detroit	Detroit
Indy (-5.5)	NY Jets	NY Jets
Dallas (-7)	Washington	Washington
Minnesota (-7)	Chicago	Minnesota

The Dogs are looking great this week.  I have a couple of big plays coming up!  Time to up the ante a little.  Until Then...

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.

Las Vegas Bowl Preview and Prediction from The Guru

College Football Season record (36-25) 57%
 
Oregon State (-2) BYU
 
BYU is seriously playing in their 5th straight Las Vegas bowl.  I think this should be considered a home game by now.  God, that must be boring!  Oregon State comes into this game knowing they were one win from the Rose Bowl, but should be focused to play the 14th ranked Cougars.  BYU lives and dies by the arm of Max Hall.  30 TD passes will do that.  He needs to establish himself for BYU to have a chance here.  The Beavers have 2 of the most electric players in the country, The Rodgers Brothers.  They are capable of taking it to the house at anytime!  The 2 teams average about the same amount of points per game and give up about the same also.  Should be a pretty classic matchup here.  My pick has to come down to Jacquizz and James.  Too much talent there!  Although the familiar surroundings and hall's arm keep it close, let's give away the 2 points and take OSU to cover. (1 unit)

 

All the information contained in this blog is for entertainment purposes only. The author assumes no liability. Don't be stupid.