National Pastime

2010 Hall of Fame Ballot - Carryover Candidates

Here are the carryover candidates from the 2009 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.

Mark McGwire - 22% in 2009 - unlikely to make it until some kind of amnesty is declared for players under suspicion from steroids era.

Lee Smith - 44.5% in 2009 - has eight more chances with BBWWA.  Election of Bruce Sutter gives him hope, though the hill is probably too steep to climb in 2010.

Bert Blyleven - 63% in 2009 - has only three more chances.  Movement of Tommy John to Veterans' Committee may help.  No strong new pitching candidates in 2010 gives hope to Blyleven fans.  He's on my ballot for sure.

Jack Morris - 44% in 2009 - five more chances - probably headed to Veterans' Committee.  Should improve his percentage in 2010, but gap is large.

Dale Murphy - 11.5% in 2009 - only four more chances - definitely headed to Veterans' Committee.

Andre Dawson - 67% in 2009 - seven more chances - likely to be enshrined in 2010 or 2011.  On my ballot, the Hawk should be the Jim Rice of 2010.

Dave Parker - 15% in 2009 - only two more chances - headed to Veterans' Committee.

Tim Raines - 23% in 2009 - 2009 was second time on ballot - long-term prospects unclear - will benefit from enshrinement of Rickey Henderson as he'll become the best leadoff hitter on the ballot. I like this underrated player.  On my ballot.

Alan Trammell - 17% in 2009 - eight more chances - a good candidate with a long way to go - probably headed for Veterans' Committee.  I'd vote for him.  Not sure why he's fallen so short.

Don Mattingly - 11% in 2009 - six more chances - headed to Veterans' Committee.

Harold Baines - 6% in 2009 in first time on ballot - will struggle to beat 5% threshold on annual basis.  With addition of good hitters like Martinez and McGriff from the new class, Baines should drop off the ballot after the 2010 election.

2010 Hall of Fame Candidates - New to the Ballot

Here's my analysis of the players that will be new to the Hall of Fame ballot in 2010.

The result of the voting by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) will be announced on January 6, 2010.

I'll post again with an analysis of the carryover candidates from the 2009 ballot and what my ballot would look like.

Could Be Elected This Year

Roberto Alomar - 17 seasons, .300 BA, 2,724 H, .814 OPS, 12-time AS, 11-time GG, 5-time top ten in MVP voting, 474 SB (80.6% success rate), two WS rings, one of the best all-around 2B in baseball history.  HOF soon, odds about 50/50 in 2010.

Will Be Elected Some Day, But Probably Not in 2010

Barry Larkin - 19 seasons, .295 BA, .815 OPS, 2,340 H, 198 HR, 379 SB (83% success rate), 12-time AS, 9-time SS, 3-time GG, 1990 MVP, one WS ring; one-day HOF, but not in 2010.  Poor man's Derek Jeter.

Could Be Elected Some Day

Edgar Martinez - 18 seasons, .312 BA, .933 OPS, 2,247 H, 309 HR, 7-time AS, 5-time SS, 70% of career as DH; will stay on ballot, long-term HOF uncertain, but certainly not before Frank Thomas.

Fred McGriff - 19 seasons, .284 BA, .886 OPS, 2,490 H, 493 HR, 5-time AS, 3-time SS; 1 WS ring; will stay on ballot, long-term HOF uncertain - ten more HR would have helped.

Will Stay on Ballot, Long-Term Election Unlikely

Andres Galarraga - 19 seasons, .288 BA, .846 OPS, 399 HR, 5-time AS, 2 GG; will stay on ballot, long-term HOF unlikely - a lesser Fred McGriff

Could Stay On The Ballot

Ellis Burks - 18 seasons, .291 BA, .874 OPS, 352 HR, 2,107 H; maybe stays on ballot, not a HOF in long run

Could Get Some Votes, But Not Enough To Stay on Ballot

Kevin Appier - 16 seasons, 169-137, 3.73 ERA - best of mediocre cast of first-time eligible pitchers

Pat Hentgen - 14 seasons, 131-112, 4.32 ERA, CYA in 1996, two WS rings - awards and rings get a vote or two?

Robin Ventura -16 seasons, .267 BA, .806 OPS, 6 GG - somebody might vote for those GGs

No Votes - No Chance

Andy Ashby - 14 seasons, 98-110, 4.12 ERA - below average starter

Dave Burba - 15 seasons, 115-87, 4.49 ERA - see above

Mike Jackson - 17 seasons, 1005 G, 57-62, 142 Saves, 3.42 ERA - long, but undistinguished career

Eric Karros - 14 seasons, .268 BA, .779 OPS, 284 HR - poor man's Steve Garvey

Ray Lankford - 14 seasons, .272 BA, .840 OPS, 238 HR, 258 SB - underrated, but still falls short

Mark McLemore -19 seasons, .259 BA, .690 OPS - career utility man

Shane Reynolds - 13 seasons, 114-96, 4.09 ERA - not good enough or long enough career

David Segui - 15 seasons, .291 BA, .802 OPS - falls far short, even with steroids

Fernando Vina - 12 seasons, .282 BA, .728 OPS - good peak, but short career

Todd Zeile - 16 seasons, .265 BA, .769 OPS, 2,004 H - a worker, but never great

American League MVP - Mauer to Like

The American League MVP race should be as lopsided as the National League balloting, thought it likely won't be.

The best OPS in the American League, the only figure higher than 1.000, belonged to a Gold Glove catcher on a division-winning team.  Of course, I'm talking about Minnesota's man, Twin catcher Joe Mauer.

To repeat, the best offensive season comes from a player playing the toughest defensive position at a Gold Glove level.  The only flaw in his resume is missing most of the first month with an injury.  Still he played in 138 games, a full season for a catcher, catching in 112 of those games (DH and 1B in others).

So why do I think this race won't be a runaway?  First because Derek Jeter won the Hank Aaron Award as the best offensive performer in the American League, over Mauer, whose OPS was only 160 points higher.  Oh yeah, Jeter won a Gold Glove too.  "Best" hitter, "best" in the field (thanks, Mark Teixeira), plays for Yankees, already legendary before season started (and broke Yankee record for career base hits) - could that add up to MVP, a rare award in that Jeter has never won it?  (He finished 2nd in 2006 and 3rd in 1998, but just 6th in 1999, his best offensive season).  It's not unthinkable.

Possibly hurting Jeter's chances is the likely third place finisher, fellow Yankee 1B Mark Teixeira.  Tex did everything the Yankees hired him to in the first year of his lucrative eight-year contract.  He led the AL in both homers and RBI and played dazzling first base.  At .948, his OPS was tied for third best in the league.  Still, some voters may be reluctant to vote Jeter first and Teixeira as high as third or fourth, or some may vote for Tex ahead of Jeter.

Remaining candidates for the top ten in the American League include Boston 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis, who posted a .951 OPS and played both positions well, Tampa Bay 2B Ben Zobrist, a former part-time OF who took over the Rays' second base job and hit to a .948 OPS, Detroit 1B Miguel Cabrera, who hit .324 with a .942 OPS, but whose candidacy probably took a hit when he got rip-roaring drunk before the Tigers' one-game playoff with the Twins for the AL Central title (Miggy actually hit well in the game).  Kendry Morales of the LAAAngels had a great season as Teixeira's replacement at first.  He was a platoon OF in 2008, but blossomed with 34 HR and a .924 OPS.  Red Sox OF Jason Bay got off to a very hot start and finished with a strong 36 HR, 119 RBI and .921 OPS.

Rounding out the list of position player candidates are two more young Tampa Bay infielders - Gold Glove 3B Evan Longoria, who posted a .889 OPS, and shortstop Jason Bartlett, who had a very Jeter-like season though he missed about a month with an injury, and some veterans.  LAAAngel CF Torii Hunter fits in the same category as Bartlett - a very nice season missing about a month with an injury.  Yankee 3B Alex Rodriguez missed 38 games to start the season, but still hit 30 HR and posted a nice .933 OPS with 100 RBI.

Whoops.  I almost forgot about a perennial candidate - Mariners' OF Ichiro Suzuki.  Ichiro had the second-best BA in the AL at .352 and the most hits with 225.  He had another fine outfielding season, winning his ninth straight Gold Glove.

Pitchers Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez, who finished 1-2 in Cy Young voting, probably belong in there somewhere, particularly Greinke, who nearly swept the AL balloting.  Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan may also get some consideration as the top two short relievers in the AL.

My top ten looks like this - Mauer, Jeter, Greinke, Teixiera, F. Hernandez, Youkilis, Zobrist, Bay, Longoria and Ichiro.

I doubt the pitchers will poll this high and suspect that Bay will finish higher than eighth.  I placed Greinke so high because of his super-low ERA in a hitter's league.

We'll see when the results are announced on Monday, November 23.

Say it's so, Joe!  Joe Mauer is the American League MVP in a landslide - 27 of 28 first place votes.  Mark Teixeira nosed about teammate Derek Jeter for second.  Miguel Cabrera was a surprising (to me) fourth by a single point over Kendry Morales.  As I predicted, pitchers didn't get much notice (Mariano Rivera highest at 15th; Greinke; just one 10th place vote for Felix Hernandez).

2009 American League MVP voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Points
Joe Mauer, MIN	27	1									387
Mark Teixeira, NYY		15	6	4	1	1		1			225
Derek Jeter, NYY		9	5	3	5	3		1	1	1	193
Miguel Cabrera, DET	1	1	5	8	4	3	2		1	3	171
Kendry Morales, LAA			3	9	10	3	2				170
Kevin Youkilis, BOS		2	7	3	4	2	2	4		1	150
Jason Bay, BOS			1	1		4	5	4	5	1	78
Ben Zobrist, TB						1	4	3	1	2	34
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA						2		4	4	3	33
Alex Rodriguez, NYY			1		3				2	1	31
Chone Figgins, LAA						3	1	2	3		31
Aaron Hill, TOR					1		2	2		3	23
Bobby Abreu, LAA						2	1	1	1	4	23
Mariano Rivera, NYY						2	1	1			17
Adam Lind, TOR							1	1	2	3	14
Michael Young, TEX							1	1	2	2	13
Zack Greinke, KC						1	1		1	1	12
Robinson Cano, NYY							3				12
Evan Longoria, TB							1	1	1		9
Justin Verlander, DET						1			1		7
CC Sabathia, NYY							1				4
Michael Cuddyer, MIN								1		1	4
Victor Martinez, CLE/BOS									2		4
Jason Kubel, Twins								1			3
Placido Polanco, DET									1		2
Felix Hernandez, SEA										1	1
Ian Kinsler, TEX										1	1

National League MVP - You Can Call Him Al

Over the last several years, the National League MVP race has boiled down to "can you beat Al(bert Pujols)?" 

Between 2002 and 2008, Pujols won two MVP awards, finished second three times and third once.  His worst finish was ninth after the 2007 season.  Barry Bonds won a unanimous vote in 2002 with a 1.381 OPS. (Pujols' modest .955 was good for second).  Barry Bonds and his 1.278 OPS to beat Al ("just" 1.106) in 2003.  Pujols finished third in 2004 to Bonds ridiculous 1.412 OPS and to 48 HR and a .334 batting average by Dodger 3B Adrian Beltre.  Al won in 2005 in a close race over Andrew Jones, who hit 52 HR as a CF with the division-winning Braves.  With Bonds safely on the tail-end of his career, Ryan Howard came along to slam 58 HR and take a narrow win over second-place Albert in 2006.  Pujols turned the tables on Howard in 2008 with a narrow win that probably shouldn't have been that close given the relative OPS's (1.114 vs 0.881).

My guess is that despite strong years by a number of challengers, Albert Pujols's win in the 2009 NL MVP balloting will be a Bondslike landslide.  Al's 1.104 OPS (.443 OBP and .658 SLG) led the NL by almost 100 points over Prince Fielder (1.014).  Pujols led the NL with 47 homers and finished a strong third in RBI with 135.  He drew 115 walks (44 intentional) against just 64 strikeouts in 700 plate appearances.  He led the league with 93 extra base hits.  Did I mention that he led the league in runs scored with 124?  Many, including me for what that's worth, felt he should have won the Gold Glove at first base.  After a nomadic first few years in the field that included stints at third base and left field, Pujols has settled in to become one of the best fielding first basemen in the majors. (photo courtesy i.cdn.turner.com/si)

OK, I get it.  You get it.  Albert Pujols should and will win the National League MVP award by a landslide.

Who are your other candidates?  Who would get the other nine votes?

Second is relatively easy.  The vote goes to Marlin SS Hanley Ramirez, who posted a .954 OPS and led the league in batting average (.342) while playing shortstop.  Ramirez scored 101 runs and drove in 106 in the best offensive season for a National League shortstop in my memory.

Third's a little tougher to pick.  As I see it, the candidates are Brewer 1B Prince Fielder, Phillie 2B Chase Utley and 1B Ryan Howard, Rockie SS Troy Tulowitzki, Cub 1B Derrek Lee, Padre 1B Adrian Gonzalez, Brewer OF Ryan Braun, Giant 3B Pablo Sandoval and Cy Young Award top finishers Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright.

Tulowitzki stands out for both great offense and defense at short.  Utley, despite a late slump, delivered 31 HR, 113 runs and stellar defense from second base.  Fielder mashed all season, piling up 46 homers and a second-best 1.014 OPS.  Let's make them group two in this order - Utley, Tulo, Fielder.

Baseball Prospectus leads me to believe that starting pitchers, particularly ones as good as Tim Lincecum, are undervalued in MVP voting. Let's put Timmy in sixth, though his estimated WARP (wins above replacement player - as yet uncalculated) might put him as high as second or third.

This leaves Howard, Lee, Gonzalez, Braun and Sandoval for the last four spots, along Carpenter and Wainwright, who were very good if not Pujolesque.

Howard improved his overall game (fielding and baserunning) and had a better offensive season than in 2008.  He gets seventh.  Gonzalez had a great season for a team that gave opposing pitchers no reason to pitch to him - eighth.  Lee was a rock all season long for the disappointing Cubs - ninth.  Sandoval brought life (and base hits) to a moribund Giant offense - tenth.  Apologies to Carpenter and Wainwright.  I'm not sure I know enough to put more than one starting pitcher in the top ten; they might both deserve it.  I'll keep working on this.

My ballot again (oh could it be so) - Pujols, H. Ramirez, Utley, Tulowitzki, Fielder, Lincecum, Howard, A. Gonzalez, D. Lee and Sandoval.

A sprinkling of votes could go to Red 1B Joey Votto (.981 OPS), Rockie 1B Todd Helton (.325 BA), National 3B Ryan Zimmerman (GG and SS), Dodger OFs Andre Ethier (31 HR, 106 RBI) and Matt Kemp (a GG and SS winner), and Phillie OF Jayson Werth (36 HR, 20 SB) and no doubt assorted other local favorites - even .241-hitting (.577 OPS!) Deivi Cruz got a couple of votes in 1997.

"King" Albert Pujols wins NL MVP by unanimous vote.  Hanley Ramirez edges Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder for second.

Here's the complete voting.  Voters liked Howard and Andre Ethier better than I did, and Chase Utley and Tim Lincecum less.

2009 National League MVP voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Points
Albert Pujols, STL	32										448
Hanley Ramirez, FLA		15	5	3	3		2	3	1		233
Ryan Howard, PHI		6	8	7	5	1	3	1			217
Prince Fielder, MIL		5	9	7	3	1		3	1	3	203
Troy Tulowitzki, COL		3	6	5	5	5	1	1			172
Andre Ethier, LAD		2		3	2	5	4	5	3		113
Pablo Sandoval, SF			1		2	5	5	6	1	4	89
Chase Utley, PHI			2	2	1	5	4		3	1	84
Derrek Lee, CHC		1			3	3	2	2	5		66
Matt Kemp, LAD				2	1	2	3	1	1	2	49
Ryan Braun, MIL					3	1		2	4	6	43
Adrian Gonzalez, SD				1		1		3	2	5	30
Todd Helton, COL			1	1		1	1		2		28
Chris Carpenter, STL					1	2	1		2	1	25
Adam Wainwright, STL					1			2	1	2	16
Matt Holliday, STL				1			1		2		15
Jayson Werth, PHI					1		1				10
Shane Victorino, PHI							2				8
Tim Lincecum, SF							1		1	2	8
Yunel Escobar, ATL					1						6
Mark Reynolds, ARI								1	1	1	6
Joey Votto, CIN							1				4
Yadier Molina, STL								1			3
Miguel Tejada, HOU								1			3
Huston Street, COL									1		2
Justin Upton, ARI									1		2
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS										2	2
Jeremy Affeldt, SF										1	1
Chris Coghlan, FLA										1	1
Brad Hawpe, COL										1	1

Managers of the Year - American League - The Road Through Adversity

The list of serious contenders for American League Manager of the Year is short.  I expect that almost all votes will be cast for my first three candidates, who each managed a division-winning team, and one other manager.

Joe Girardi, New York Yankees - Talk about expectations.  With three massive free agent signings and a new stadium, coming off the first empty Yankee postseason since 1994 (when there was no postseason), Joe Girardi might have thought it was "win or be gone" for him.  He won as the team overcame a sluggish start (15-17), an offseason surgery to Alex Rodriguez that caused him to miss the first month, and some early pitching jitters in their homer-happy new ballpark to  steamroll the American League and win 103 games.  Most of Joe's managerial maneuvering focused on the fourth and fifth starters and middle relief, which he never quite figured out, but the team's three top starters and Mariano Rivera made these moot points for the postseason.

Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Twins - Gardenhire is the AL version of Fredi Gonzalez, expect that his undermanned teams win division championships.  They surged at season's end to overtake the Tigers and win AL Central in their second straight one-game divisional playoff (they lost to the White Sox in 2008).  Once again, Gardenhire pieced together a succesful team despite having half a lineup full of outs and no pitching ace beyond closer Joe Nathan.  Their late surge came with former MVP Justin Morneau on the bench with an injury.   He may look a bit like Burl Ives, but Gardenhire is more than a holiday crooner when it comes to managing.

Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Talk about obstacles.  The LAAAngels lost their superstar closer and 1B (K-Rod and Teixeira) to free agency.  They started the season with half their starting staff on the DL and very soon lost rookie replacement Nick Adenhart to a fatal car accident.  Then they won the AL West by ten games, even with CF Torii Hunter spending a month on the DL and DH Vladimir Guerrero reduced to a grey-scale image of his former self.  Things came unglued a bit for the Angels in the ALCS, but that's outside the scope of this award.

Ron Washington, Texas Rangers - Washington is the Bochy of the American League - from a short leash that would probably not stretch 'til the end of the season to a successful year that wins at least one more year at the helm.  Better pitching was the key to the Rangers' improvement, as the team actually scored fewer runs than their predecessors.  Somebody had to create the climate where this improvement could happen.  I'll give most of the credit to Washington.

Jim Leyland may scrounge a third place vote for the Tigers' worst-to-second improvement.  The wild card Red Sox' 95 wins may do likewise for Terry Francona.

Even though he had a lot of cushion to work with (the Angels won AL West in 2008 by more than 20 games), Mike Scioscia led his team through so much personal and professional adversity that he gets my vote for AL Manager of the Year.  Joe Girardi is second and Ron Gardenhire third.

Mike Scioscia wins AL Manager of the Year with 15 of 28 first-place votes.  Gardenhire was second and Girardi third.  Washington, Leyland, and Mariners' manager Don Wakamatsu also received votes.  I should have highlighted Wakamatsu, who led the Mariners to a 24-game increase in wins (61 to 85), though the team never contended for either the division or the wild card.

AL Manager of the Year

Manager	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Mike Scioscia, LAA	15	10	1	106
Ron Gardenhire, MIN	6	12	6	72
Joe Girardi, NYY	4	3	5	34
Don Wakamatsu, SEA	2	2	3	19
Ron Washington, TEX	1	1	11	19
Jim Leyland, DET			2	2

Managers of the Year - National League - Turnaround Expert

Wednesday's MLB awards are for Manager of the Year in both the National and American League.

Let's look at the contenders.

National League

Jim Tracy, Colorado Rockies - The discussion has to start with the Rockies' skipper, who took over a floundering ship in mid-May and ended up with a wild card playoff berth. Less than two years ago, Clint Hurdle was the perfect manager in Colorado after the 2007 team's run to the National League pennant.  But that was 2007.  I'm not sure exactly what Tracy did other than to assign roles in the bullpen, put Clint Barmes at 2B every day and move Ian Stewart to 3B to platoon or more with slumping Garrett Atkins, but that apparently was enough.

Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia Phillies - Ol' Cholly led the Phillies to their third straight NL East crown and second NL pennant.  With the Mets collapse due to injury, competition for the first wasn't that stiff.   I'm not sure I'm allowed to consider postseason success for this award.  Still, Manuel navigated a potentially disastrous bullpen situation.  GM Ruben Amaro deserves part credit for bringing in Cliff Lee to stabilize the entire pitching staff.

Tony LaRussa, St. Louis Cardinals - Leapfrogging three teams to win a division will always gain the manager consideration for Manager of the Year, even a veteran like LaRussa.  Credit goes to LaRussa for his creative handling of the second base job - OF Skip Schumaker did all he could.  He also put former journeyman starter Ryan Franklin in the closer role, which he handled brilliantly.  By midseason, Brendan Ryan had taken over at shortstop, solidifying the Cards' inner defense.  On the fortuitous side, Chris Carpenter rebounded beyond all expectations from a two-year injury break to contend for the Cy Young Award.  Cards management brought in Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo to help after the All-Star break.  Nice work by the Cards, but not all LaRussa's doing.

Joe Torre, Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers were expected to win NL West and did, dominating for most of the season before a holding off a late challenge by the Rockies.  Torre met three major challenges - the early-season 50-game PED suspension of superstar Manny Ramirez, the off-season departure of staff ace Derek Lowe, and the unpredictable meltdown of young pitching ace Chad Billingsley.  Juan Pierre stood ready to help with the former - credit to both Pierre and Torre for making sure he was ready.  Twenty-one year old Clayton Kershaw covered the second problem well.  Ned Coletti brought in Ranger pariah Vicente Padilla to cover Billingsley, a potentially ugly addition to the roster that Torre managed beautifully.

Fredi Gonzalez, Florida Marlins - It seems like Fredi always gets MoY notice for getting the most out of a low budget Florida Marlins lineup.  2009 was no exception, though the Marlins' budget  grew when they locked up Hanley Ramirez for several more years.  Marlins 2008 ace Chris Volstad fell off a cliff pitchingwise and Ricky Nolasco wasn't much better.  The Marlins also struggled with their bullpen.  But Gonzalez ID'd minor league IF Chris Coghlan as a candidate to both play LF and lead off, a move that couldn't have worked out better, as Coghlan was named NL Rookie of the Year.

Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants - A year ago, I'd have said that this guy was a year from being fired.  The Giants improved by 16 games to 88 wins and Bochy's job seems secure for at least one more year.  I'm not sure how much credit he can take.  Pitching is the great equalizer and no NL West team had a better 1-2 combo than Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.  Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval seemed to rejuvenate the offense, though they didn't score many more runs than the 2008 team.

Managing a major league team is a bit of a black art.  Sometimes you just have to look at results and the record shows that Jim Tracy took a team that was ten games under .500 and finished 22 games over.  I'll pick Tracy as the 2009 National League Manager of the Year.  Second place goes to Tony LaRussa and third to Joe Torre.

Jim Tracy takes the NL Manager of the Year award in a nearly unanimous vote.

As I would have voted, LaRussa was second and Joe Torre third.  I missed Bobby Cox in my preview.  Didn't see how a third-place finish was so special. He did work through some difficulties at 2B and CF and the Braves did improve their record from 2008.

NL Manager of the Year

Manager	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Jim Tracy, COL	29	2		151
Tony La Russa, STL	2	13	6	55
Joe Torre, LAD	1	7	7	33
Bobby Cox, ATL		3	6	21
Bruce Bochy, SF		5	3	18
Charlie Manuel, PHI		2	4	10
Fredi Gonzalez, FLA			4	4
Bud Black, SD			2	2

American League Cy Young Award - Anonymously Obvious

For me, the choice for the AL Cy Young Award is much more obvious, though the actual voters may not agree.

I'll look in detail at five starters and four relievers.

1) Zack Greinke - The 26-year old righthander from the Royals was nearly unhittable during the first month of the season and didn't back down much the rest of the way.  He finished with a MLB-leading 2.16 ERA, posted primarily against DH-including AL batting orders.  He struck out 242 batters in 229 IP with a 1.07 WHIP.  The offensively challenged Royals held down both Zack's win total and exposure, but he still managed a 16-8 record on a team that won just 65 games overall.

2)  Felix Hernandez - All the preseason hype generated during the World Baseball Classic about this 23-year old Venezuelan wasn't hype after all.  He measured up with a 2.49 ERA and 19-5 record in 34 starts totaling 238 IP for the Mariners.

3)  Roy Halladay - Veteran Blue Jay "Doc" Halladay is a fixture in AL Cy Young Award discussions (four times he's finished in the top five), and recently in discussions about star pitchers most likely to be traded.  2009 was a typical Halladay season with a 2.79 ERA and 17-10 record.  When he was good he was very, very good.  Halladay led the majors with nine complete games and four shutouts.

4) CC Sabathia - Signed to a mega free agent contract by the Yankees before 2009 season, Sabathia responded with a fine season.  He posted a 19-8 record and 3.37 ERA after a shaky start in homer- happy new Yankee Stadium.  

5) Justin Verlander - Verlander bounced back from a subpar 2008 to pitch one of his best seasons.  He led the majors with 269 Ks and posted a 3.45 ERA and 19-9 record in an MLB-leading 240 IP.

Jon Lester also had a fine season, but was a little short on IP.  Starters like Edwin Jackson, Kevin Millwood, Jerred Weaver and Josh Beckett were good, but not worthy of Cy Young consideration.

Closers had a very strong year in the AL.  I'll cover the top four.

1)  Mariano Rivera - Who else?  Mo pitched 66 innings in 66 appearances, recording 44 saves in 46 chances with a 1.76 ERA.  Will this guy ever get old?

2)  Andrew Bailey - The Rookie of the Year had a great first season of closing for the A's.  26/30 saves with a 1.83 ERA.  Will the A's try him in the rotation?

3) Jonathan Papelbon - Year in and out, Pap's one of the best.  2009 was no exception.  38 saves in 41 tries with a 1.85 ERA.

4) Joe Nathan - Somewhat unnoticed behind the more famous Rivera and more spectacular Papelbon is the Twins' closer.  Nathan saved an MLB-high 47 games in 52 tries with a 2.10 ERA and sub-1 WHIP.  He also struck out 89 in 68 IP.

My AL Cy Young vote goes wholeheartedly to Zack Greinke with Hernandez second, Halladay third, Sabathia fourth and Verlander fifth.  The relievers come next - Rivera sixth, Papelbon seventh, Nathan eighth and Bailey ninth.  Jon Lester gets the tenth spot.

Greinke Wins Decisively!

Hernandez consensus second.  Three starters in virtual tie for third.  No votes for relievers.

AL Cy Young Award Voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
Zack Greinke, KC	25	3		134
Felix Hernandez, SEA	2	23	1	80
Justin Verlander, DET	1		9	14
CC Sabathia, NYY		2	7	13
Roy Halladay, TOR			11	11

National League Cy Young Award - A Photo Finish Goes To?

Next up on the MLB award calendar are the Cy Young Awards, which will be announced this week.

Here's a preview/prediction for the National League Cy Young Award.

The field is dominated by three starters with two others in a second tier.

 
1)  Chris Carpenter - The Cardinal righty already picked up the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award and rightfully so as he pitched almost a full season after making just five appearances total in 2007 and 2008.  Carpenter jumped right back to the form that won him the 2005 Cy Young Award.  He posted a league-leading 2.24 ERA, league-best 1.01 WHIP, and a 17-4 record in 192 IP over 28 starts, with three complete games and a shutout.  Carpenter's pitching was a major reason that the Cards leapfrogged three teams to win the NL Central crown.

2)  Tim Lincecum - The winner of the 2008 NL Cy Young Award had another fabulous season for the Giants. He made 32 starts and pitched 225 innings for a league-leading 7.03 IP/start.  How'd he do in those seven innings?  Real well.  2.48 ERA, a league-leading 261 Ks, just 168 hits and 68 walks allowed for miserly 1.049 WHIP.  He also won 15 games for a Giant team that won 88 games, an improvement of 16 over their 2008 performance.

3)  Adam Wainwright - Carpenter and former closer Wainwright were 1 and 1-A for the Cardinals.  Wainwright led the league in IP with 233 and in wins with 19.  He also posted a nifty 2.63 ERA.

The second-tier starters are both from the Atlanta Braves.

4)  Jair Jurrjens - The 23-year old righty from the Netherland Antilles had a phenomenal second season.  He pitched 215 innings in 34 starts with a 2.60 ERA and 14 wins.

5)  Javier Vasquez - The J & J combo gave opposing batters fits.  Vasquez, a 34-year old veteran from Puerto Rico, threw 219 IP in 32 starts and had a 1.03 WHIP.  His 2.87 ERA, 238 K against 44 BB,  and 15-10 record weren't too shabby either.

Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, Josh Johnson and Dan Haren all had fine seasons, just not to the level of the five pitchers listed above.

Out of the bullpen, I'll highlight three pitchers, though no NL reliever had a dominating season like Brad Lidge did in 2008.

1) Francisco "Coco" Cordero - Pitching in near anonymity in Cincinnati, Cordero amassed 39 saves in 43 chances and posted a 2.16 ERA.  However, at 1.33, his WHIP was not outstanding.

2) Jonathan Broxton - The Dodgers' giant closer came the closest to being unhittable of any NL reliever in 2009, especially in Dodger Stadium.  Overall, Broxton made 73 appearances and recorded 36 saves in 42 tries.  He struck out an amazing 114 batters in 76 IP (13.5 per 9 innings) and posted a 2.61 ERA.  Giving up just 44 hits, his WHIP was below one at 0.96.

3)  Heath Bell - Bell did a great job for the Padres replacing future Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman.  He recorded a league-high 42 saves in 48 chances and posted a 2.71 ERA.

For me, the call is very close between Carpenter and Lincecum with Wainwright third.  Carpenter has the advantage in ERA and WHIP;  Lincecum made four more starts and pitched 33 more innings, and struck out more than 100 more batters.  Both pitchers already have a Cy Young Award in their trophy room.  Carpenter won the Comeback Award, which covers his great recovery from injury.

Lincecum pitched with the additional pressure of a weak-hitting lineup behind him.  The Giants scored just 657 runs, fourth-fewest in the NL to the Cardinals' 730.

I hope the vote will result in a tie and joint award, but I'm going to pick Tim Lincecum to take home his second straight NL Cy Young Award.  Carpenter finishes second, Wainwright third, folllowed by Vasquez, Jurrjens, Broxton, Bell, Cain, Rodriguez and Johnson.

Tim Lincecum wins one of the closest votes ever to take his second straight Cy Young Award.  The margin between Lincecum and third-place Adam Wainwright was just 10 points. In fact, Wainwright got the most first-place votes.

NL Cy Young Award Voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts.
Tim Lincecum, SF	11	12	9	100
Chris Carpenter, STL	9	14	7	94
Adam Wainwright, STL	12	5	15	90
Javier Vazquez, ATL		1		3
Dan Haren, ARI			1	1

Rookie of the Year Predictions - American League - Elvis in Building or Bending Toward Beckham?

The list of AL rookie position players who played enough to qualify for the batting title is short - just one in fact - Ranger SS Elvis Andrus, but there are several other non-qualifying position players who make good AL Rookie of the Year candidates, along with several pitchers.

Position Players

1)  Elvis Andrus - The Rangers shored up their infield defense by installing this 21-year old Venezuelan as their regular shortstop and moving Michael Young to third. Andrus responded with outstanding defense, and creditable if not great offense, highlighted by eight triples, 33 SBs in 39 tries and 12 sacrifices.  His OPS was .702, good enough considering his defense on an otherwise hard-hitting team.

2)  Nolan Reimold - Obviously I didn't follow the Orioles too closely as this is the first I've heard of this guy.  He hit .279 and posted an .831 OPS in 358 AB as a LF.

3)  Gordon Beckham - I knew about Beckham, who one year ago was playing in the College World Series for the University of Georgia.  After a very short minor league career, Beckham came up to the White Sox and made them forget about Joe Crede.  In 378 AB, Beckham hit .270 with 28 2B and an .808 OPS.

4) Matt Wieters - According to preseason hype, Wieters was supposed revolutionize the game in Baltimore, but posted a more realistic .753 OPS in 351 AB as their new catcher.

Pitchers

Five AL rookie pitchers threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title with remarkably similar results.  None of them are the best AL pitching candidate for Rookie of the Year.

1) Jeff Niemann - Niemann allowed Tampa Bay to trade Edwin Jackson to Detroit.  He pitched 180 innings and posted a 3.94 ERA and 13-6 record.  Now the Rays wish they had Jackson back to replace Scott Kazmir, who they traded to the Angels.

2) Rick Porcello - Like J.A. Happ, rookie Porcello was his team's (Tigers) best starter for part of the season.  He finished with a 3.96 ERA and 14-9 record.

3) Brett Anderson - Anderson toiled in obscurity with Oakland, but pitched 175 innings in 30 starts with a 4.06 ERA and just 45 walks along with 135 Ks.  His record was 11-11.

4) Ricky Romero - Romero had an up-and-down year with the Blue Jays, but finished with a creditable 4.30 ERA and 13-9 record in 29 starts.

5)  Trevor Cahill - Yet another rookie starter for the A's, Cahill was the least effective of this group with a 4.63 ERA and 10-13 record.

Relievers make up the list of top non-qualifiers

1) Andrew Bailey - This big righthander had a sensational rookie season with the A's, making 68 appearances, posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, while saving 26 games in 30 chances.  He struck out 91 batters in 83 innings while walking just 24. He's 25-years old.  What's not to like?

2) Jose Mijares - The Twins' setup man had a great season, posting a 2.34 ERA in 71 appearances.  He was credited with 27 holds and had just one blown lead.

I'd put Andrus, Beckham and Bailey at the top of the list and give the award to Bailey with Andrus second and Beckham third, Niemann, Porcello and Anderson tie for fourth, Mijares places seventh, then Reimer, Wieters and finally Cahill.

I could live with any of my top three getting the award.  Each made a big contribution to his respective team.

Here's the actual vote - Andrew Bailey wins!

2009 AL roy voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Andrew Bailey	13	6	5	88
Elvis Andrus	8	6	7	65
Rick Porcello	7	8	5	64
Jeff Niemann	x	5	6	21
Gordon Beckham	x	2	4	10
Brett Anderson	x	1	1	4

Rookie of the Year Predictions - National League - A Happy Day?

A post and a tweet from fellow MTR bloggers inspired me to comment on the 2009 MLB Rookie of the Year awards, which will be announced later today.

As usual, I'll start with the National League, in which there are several strong candidates.

Among pitchers, I see four good candidates

1)  J.A. Happ - This Phillie lefty pitched 166 innings with a 2.93 ERA and 12-4 record.  For a stretch in midseason, he was the Phillies' most dependable starter.  He started the season in relief and moved into the rotation when Brett Myers got hurt.

2)  Randy Wells - This Cub righty was one of the club's most dependable starters all year.  He made 27 starts and pitched 165 innings with a 3.05 ERA. His record was 12-10.

3)  Tommy Hanson - The Braves brought Hanson up later in the season.  He made 21 starts and pitched 127 innings to a 2.89 ERA and a 11-4 record.

4)  Ronald Belisario - The best NL rookie reliever made 69 appearances for the Dodgers with a 2.04 ERA and 64 Ks in 70 IP.  He posted a 4-3 record with 12 holds.

Among position players, only three got enough ABs to qualify for the batting title, but I'll add two other players from the non-qualifiers.

1)  Chris Coghlan - This Marlin OF plugged a couple holes in their lineup in LF and at the leadoff position.  In 504 AB he got 162 hits, scored 84 runs and posted a .390 OBP and .850 OPS.

2) Dexter Fowler - This Rockie CF also hit leadoff much of the year and covered the middle of the outfield well.  He batted just .266 but drew 67 walks for a .363 OBP and stole 27 bases.  His OPS was .770.

3) Colby Rasmus - The Cardinals' rookie OF might have won the award at midseason, but slumped badly in the second half and lost his starting job when Matt Holliday came over from the As.  He finished with a .714 OPS and 16 HR.

4)  Andrew McCutchen - The Pirates moved former starter Nate McLouth to the Braves to make room for this exciting player in CF.  He responded with a terrific rookie season in which he posted an .836 OPS with 22 steals and a .365 OBP in the Pirates' leadoff position.  His 493 PA just missed the qualifying cutoff for the batting title.  He turned 23 in October.  Will the Pirates build around this guy or trade him?  I'm guessing the latter.

5)  Garrett Jones - The Pirate OF/1B played only half a season, but slugged 21 HR in that time and posted a .938 OPS.

I see the race as a very close call among Happ, Coghlan and McCutchen.  As a Phillie fan, I'd vote for Happ, but the other two top candidates would be worthy choices.  I'd give McCutchen the nod for outfielding and baserunning.  Wells would be fourth, Fowler fifth and Hanson sixth, then Belisario and Jones, with Rasmus trailing the field.

Thanks to espn.go.com for the rookie stat breakdowns needed for this analysis.

Next up, the American League rookies.

The vote is in - Coghlan noses out Happ for NL Rookie of the Year.

2009 nl roy voting

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	Points
Chris Coghlan	17	6	2	105
J.A. Happ	10	11	11	94
Tommy Hanson	2	6	9	37
Andrew McCutchen	2	5	x	25
Casey McGehee	1	3	4	18
Randy Wells	x	1	x	3
Garrett Jones	x	x	2	2
Everth Cabrera	x	x	1	1
Dexter Fowler	x	x	1	1
Gerardo Parra	x	x	1	1
Colby Rasmus	x	x	1	1