Tomahawk Talk

Atlanta Braves Rest Easy Thursday Night; Come Within 3.5 Games of Rockies

The Braves finished a sweep of the New York Mets Wednesday evening ending the night only four games behind the NL Wild-Card leader, Colorado Rockies.  Thursday was an off night for Bobby Cox and his Atlanta Braves, but late Thursday night, they gained another half game as the Padres took care of the Rockies.

Ten games will decide the Brave's hopes for a playoff berth.  While the Colorado Rockies control their own destiny with a still significant lead in the wild-card race, the Braves sure could help their chances by winning out.  Call me crazy, but the way the Braves have played recently...I wouldn't rule out such a thing.

The Braves will end the season with three games against the slumping Marlins and seven games against the league's worst team, the Washington Nationals.  This would be a definite advantage for the Braves.  The Braves just need to find a way to beat those Marlins...something that hasn't been easy this season.

Thankfully for the Braves, the Rockies have a difficult nine game stretch ahead of them.  They have three games three solid clubs: the St. Louis Cardinals, the Milwaukee Brewers, and the LA Dodgers.  While the Brewers are a sub-.500 team in 2009, I don't consider them to be a push over.  The hardest part will be overcoming the LA Dodgers (92-61) and the St. Louis Cardinals (89-64).

Schedule wise, the Braves may have enough to catch the Rockies.  I think to catch the Rockies, the Braves would have to win nine of their final ten games to force a playoff game.  I would project the Rockies to go 5-4 over their final nine games given the difficulty of their schedule.

If the Braves were to make the playoffs by some stretch of the imagination...I think they could potentially win a World Series.  My reason?  Typically, the hottest team going into the playoffs wins it all.  If the Braves make it, they would certainly be that team.

Atlanta Braves Fallen Apart Right Before Our Very Eyes

I sure wish I could use the present tense of the verb "fallen" to say that the Braves are only falling apart before our very eyes.  However, this late in the season, the Braves going to view the last two week of baseball with as much regret as any stretch of their franchise.

The Braves at one time were within three games of the Colorado Rockies...and now sit 8.5 games back with only 23 games left.  In other words, the Braves better go undefeated for the rest of the season and hope the Colorado Rockies, San Fransisco Giants, and Florida Marlins have a ton of injuries and just all around bad luck to end the season.

Impossible?  No.  Improbable?  Yes!

Here's the thing that bothers me the most.  The Braves were playing great baseball.  They had their fishing rods out, they had hooked the Rockies, Giants, and Marlins, and were slowly but surely reeling them in.  Then, five losses later to the Marlins and Reds, the Braves are virtually out of playoff contention for the 2009 season.

What happened?

Chipper's been playing hurt when he has been playing.  Martin Prado and Nate McClouth have been out several games recently.  Adam LaRoche and Matt Diaz have both cooled a tad bit recently.  Derek Lowe hasn't been the ace the Braves have hoped he would be.  Rafael Soriano also could have been better in the ninth inning.

What can we hopefully look forward to in 2009 assuming the Braves don't make the playoffs?

A healthy Chipper Jones (maybe).  A new found slugger in Matt Diaz.  The hopeful return of Tim Hudson.  Adam LaRoche resigned and hitting homers again.  An All-Star middle infield of Martin Prado and Yunel Escobar.  The best hitting catcher in the National League in Brian McCann.  A mega-talented starting rotation consisting of Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe.  Wow.

Not to mention the possibility of a kid named Jason Heyward...

Even so, there is some baseball yet to be played.  I'm looking forward to the playoffs, even if it looks like the teams that make it may not include the Atlanta Braves.  (At least the Titans kickoff their season tonight!)

Atlanta Braves Can't Deny, Ryan Howard is A Slugger

For the Atlanta Braves, the NL East is becoming a long shot.  As long as the Phillies can stay healthy, they look to maintain their lead in the NL East as the Braves just can't seem to win the big games here lately.

On that note, Ryan Howard is killing us; he really is.  Just last night he was 3-for-3 with 2 HRs and a double.  In his career against Atlanta, he is hitting .339 with 29 HRs in only 283 ABs.  In 2009 alone, he's hit 5 HRs off of Braves pitching and is hitting .327.

Thankfully, his career against tonight's starter Derek Lowe isn't so spectacular... In 22 ABs against Lowe, Howard has hit .136 and no homers.  Let's hope that history stands up tonight.

Last night, the Braves dropped another game to the Phillies in a very wet 2-4 loss.  Tommy Hanson started the game and was forced to leave the game early after not one, but two rain delays.  Who knows how the game would have turned out if mother nature was taken out of the equation.

The most frustrating moment of the game however was the Braves inability to produce more runs with the bases loaded in the top of the 8th inning against the struggling reliever Madson.  The Braves haven't hit a grand slam all season long, but boy was I expecting one last night.  With Escobar on first, Anderson on second, and Chipper on third, Adam LaRoche who is as hot as ever came to bat with two outs.  With a full count, LaRoche flied out to Shane Victorino to end the inning.

If the Braves are going to make the playoffs, they need to swing the bats better.  Not just swing the bats better, but especially with runner's on base late in the games.  Against the Padres the Braves had similar opportunities but failed to cash in on the runners in scoring position.

Tonight, Derek Lowe (12-8; 4.48 ERA) faces the recently spectacular Cliff Lee (12-9; 2.63 ERA).  The Braves hitters will look to slow down a Cliff Lee that so far in the National League has been incredible going 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA.  Derek Lowe needs a great game tonight against the Philadelphia sluggers, namely Ryan Howard, in order to help the Braves gain a game back in the NL East standings.

Tomorrow, the Braves will send Jair Jurrjens (10-8; 2.81 ERA) to the hill against Joe Blanton (8-6; 3.88 ERA).  This game will be presented nationally via ESPN and ESPN HD.  Catch the Sunday night game of the week tomorrow night at 8:05 ET as it should be a great pitching matchup between the two future aces.

- Kevin Markum

Braves Digging Their Own Graves This Time

Wednesday's game against the San Diego Padres was a huge loss for the Atlanta Braves who are fighting for a spot in October's playoffs.

Chipper and the Braves missed an opportunity to gain a game on the wild-card leading Colorado Rockies on Wednesday night as the Dodgers defeated the Rockies six to one.  Instead, the Braves sit five games behind the Rockies and have also let the Marlins surpass them in the standings as well.

Not only this, but the Braves loss last night caused them to fall eight games back from the NL East leading Philadelphia Phillies.  While the Braves are certainly not out of it, eight games is a huge deficit to overcome in just 36 games.  The ray of sunshine could be the Braves still have six games against the Phillies and Marlins both.  This could help them gain ground if they can make a good showing against their NL East rivals.

What is frustrating is that the San Diego Padres are a flat out inferior team to the surging Atlanta Braves.  In a pennant race, you have to beat up on the likes of the Padres.  There is no excuse for loosing the first two games of the series.  With all the momentum in the world, the Braves should have easily swept the Padres.

How about some good news for a change?

According to sources, Tim Hudson will get his first start of the season for the Braves on Monday against who else...the Florida Marlins.  It will certainly be great to see him back for the Braves in whatever role he ends up playing for the Braves this season.  Given he has a contract option this offseason that the team has control over, he will likely look to make a good showing in what time he is given in 2009.

What great timing huh?

The week the Braves have coming up is probably the most important they will have all season long.  It features three games against the Phillies and four against the Marlins.  This week will make or break the season more than likely.

Atlanta Braves Can Still Snag the NL East Lead Before October

First of all, I'd like to say how appreciative I am to be given the opportunity to be able to post some thoughts on the Tomahawk Talk blog for all you Braves fans out there.  I'm looking forward to helping you follow the Braves as they continue to compete in the heated NL East for years to come.

The facts are this:

1.)  The Atlanta Braves are currently sitting in third place in the NL East standing 6.5 games back from the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies and the talented Florida Marlins.

2.) The Braves are also four games back in the wild card race from the Colorado Rockies.

3.) The Braves still have 15 games against the Phillies and Marlins combined.

Many look at those facts and say, "Well, I guess we need to just focus on the wild card race between the Giants, Braves, Cubs, Marlins, and Rockies."  However, of those wild card contenders, we would have to count on other teams to beat them.  The Marlins are the only team among that list that we face for the rest of the season.

I really think the Braves have a shot to win the wild card race, but I think we have an even better shot at winning the NL East because of the amount of head to head matchups we still have against the Phillies and the Marlins.

The Braves dropped a heart-breaker to the Florida Marlins last night as the Braves lost 3-5.  This series is very important as the Braves are only a game behind the Marlins in the pennant race.  Whoever takes the series will have a game lead over the other when it comes to team standing.  I would really like to see the Braves take a strong hold over the Florida Marlins as we have nine games left against them the rest of this season.

Aside from the division and wild-card races, how nice is it to have Omar Infante back in the lineup?  I don't even care where they put him in the field at this point, just keep him hitting lead-off.  While he is just 6-for-25 since returning from injury, he is a definite game changer.  With Nate McClouth and Martin Prado being out of the lineup recently, it's been nice to just simply activate Omar Infante and use him at will.

Back to the division race, I think the Braves can pull it off.  I really do.  Yes, I'm an eternal optimist.  Yes, until the Braves are mathematically out of contention, I think they can come back and win.  Seriously though, they have the team to make a run.

I don't care who you are, the Braves starting pitching is the best in the majors.  Say all you want about Kenshin Kawakami.  The 'rookie' went toe-to-toe with Johan Santana and the Mets and beat him in a 3-2 game Thursday night.  Tommy Hanson is as advertised going 8-2 with a 3.05 ERA so far.  His control is excellent as well as his K-to-BB ratio is about 2:1.  Not bad for a rookie eh?  Javier Vazquez is having a career season in a Braves uniform.  How good is that trade, including then-rookie-prospect catcher Flowers, looking now?  Jair Jurrjens is showing the potential this season to be the next Johan Santana, yes, he is that good.  Derek Lowe is having an above average season as the current team ace, but did I mention...Tim Hudson could be back for the good part of September?

The hitting is also coming around.  Yunel Escobar has made me look like a smart man this season.  I picked him up early in the season for Xavier Nady.  Nady went down on a season ending injury, and Escobar is showing that next year's voting for the All-Star game should not overlook him.  Defensively and offensively, he has it all.

Chipper Jones is having an off year, but an off year for Chipper is still better than an average year from most other major leaguers.  Brian McCann is the best hitting catcher in the National League.  Take that Martin, Soto, and Molina.

How about Martin Prado?  Once viewed as a second or third option at second base behind Kelly Johnson and Omar Infante, he is now a future All-Star for the Atlanta Braves for years to come.  I just love watching him hit, I really do.  Who wouldn't when you can put up a .309 BA and get on base.

How about the return of Adam LaRoche?  I wasn't thrilled to trade the gold-glove Casey Kotchman.  However, Adam LaRoche is making me a believer in second-half statistics.  Does 7 HRs in 18 games for the Braves shock you?  It should, it really should.  Oh, and he's hitting .410 since being traded back to the team that drafted him.

With the absence of Nate McClouth, the three Braves outfielders have been filling in quite nicely.  Matt Diaz is hitting .293, Ryan Church at .278, and Garret Anderson at .284.

How about this statistic?  Among the current starters (Anderson, Church, Diaz, C. Jones, Escobar, Prado, LaRoche, and McCann), Ryan Church holds the lowest average on the team at .278 with exception to Adam LaRoche who has been hitting .410 since being traded.  Not bad for the team as a whole huh?

Enough mindless rambling...I look forward to continuing this blog for you guys.  I really want to make this blog fit what you want.  Help me make this site what you the fans want to see and talk about.  I'm willing to take suggestions by all means.  Feel free to leave comments and make sure to subscribe to Tomahawk Talk to get the latest information and discussion on the best team in the bigs, your Atlanta Braves...

-Kevin Markum

Braves Week 1 (4/5-4/12)

There is no point in me reporting every game.  They are available by beat writers everywhere.  They can get the games to you quicker and hey, they were actually there.  Instead I will list links to the games and give you my take every Sunday.

Mark Bowman:

April 5: Braves 4, Phillies 1

April 7: Braves 4, Phillies 0

April 8: Phillies 12, Braves 11

April 10: Braves 6, Nationals 5

April 11: Braves 5, Nationals 3

2009 Atlanta Braves Preview

NL East

1. Mets- Johan will win a Cy Young in the National League now that he finally has a bullpen behind him.  K-Rod and Putz will make up the best 1-2 punch in the National League.
2. Phillies- The Phillies likely have the best line-up in the NL besides maybe the Dodgers.  The pitching remains very good but does have question marks.  It will be interesting to see how many more years Jamie Moyer can actually pitch.
3. Braves
4. Marlins- There will be no ’09 Rays.  As annoying as that talk has been though, if one team fits that mold it’s Florida.  They have a star stuck in a losing situation in Hanley Ramirez (Carl Crawford), an impact prospect ready to come up and make a huge impact in Cameron Maybin (Evan Longoria), a good, young rotation with no pitchers older than 26 (James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza), and a bullpen that should be good enough to hold the team together.  They could be a surprise team in 2009 and have the potential to win the division.
5. Nationals- The team will likely not be winning with John Lannon as an ace, but the offense should be improved with Adam Dunn inserted in the middle.  With Jim Bowden finally out of Washington, the team should likely turn things around in the coming years if the right moves are made.

Starting Pitching

1. Derek Lowe
2. Javier Vazquez
3. Jair Jurrjens
4. Kenshin Kawakami
5. Tom Glavine

Lowe and Vazquez will give the Braves significant impact arms that they lacked last year.  Though I like the Vazquez trade and dislike the Lowe signing, in the short term both additions are really helpful as the Braves didn’t log a 200 inning pitcher for the first time since 1981…I expect a drop-off for Jurrens in his sophomore year.  He walked nearly three and a half batters per nine innings and had a K/BB ratio of just 1.99.  A little regression seems to be in store…I haven’t heard much about Kawakami, but word is he looks good and he’s had a solid spring…Once the Braves realize Tom Glavine isn’t effective anymore, look for either Jorge Campillo to move out of the bullpen or super-prospect Tommy Hanson to get a shot from the minors…Tim Hudson won’t be back until August at the earliest.

Bullpen

1. Mike Gonzalez
2. Rafael Soriano
3. Peter Moylan

4. Blaine Boyer

5. Eric O’Flaherty
6. Buddy Carlyle
7. Jorge Campillo
8. Jeff Bennett

Gonzalez looks healthy in his return from Tommy John surgery, though his spring ERA sits at 6.48.  He should have the closer’s role locked up at least for the short term though with Soriano battling the effects of an oblique injury…Moylan is coming off Tommy John surgery as well and could make a significant impact, possibly in the set-up role…Boyer was overused in the first half last year which led to poor numbers after the break but I expect him to rebound and have a solid season….O’Flaherty was claimed off waivers from the Mariners and figures to log some innings in a middle relief role.

Starting Line-up

1. 2B Kelly Johnson
2. SS Yunel Escobar
3. 3B Chipper Jones
4. C Brian McCann
5. LF Garrett Anderson
6. RF Jeff Francoeur
7. 1B Casey Kotchman
8. CF Jordan Schafer
9. Pitcher

Johnson and Escobar do a good enough job handling middle infield responsibilities and getting on-base for Chipper.  Chipper’s the X-factor.  If he can play more than 130 games the Braves will have a much better chance.  With him in the line-up, Atlanta is a good offensive ballclub, take him out and the same can not be said.  Omar Infante just won’t cut it if he needs to get 300+ at bats… McCann is only 25 and he has a strong argument for best catcher in the MLB.  His numbers should continue to improve…Anderson is finally back on track after dealing with problems with his calf all spring…Though I am not at all a fan of his .312 career OBP, I am all aboard the Francoeur bandwagon, I expect him to be back to his 25-30 homer range…Kotchman just never turned out to be the superstar scouts once though he would be.  In the meantime he should be able to handle first base duties until Freddie Freeman is ready…Schafer making the big team was one of the biggest surprises of the spring.  He has played only 84 games above A which could be a cause for concern, as well as his .236 lifetime batting average against lefties.

Bench

C Clint Sammons

INF Omar Infante

INF Martin Prado

OF Matt Diaz

OF Greg Norton

In a surprise move, Gregor Blanco was optioned to AAA.  He should be recalled at some point this season…David Ross was placed on the 15-day DL with a groin injury, it doesn’t seem to be too serious…Prado will be the main infield back-up and should steal some at-bats against left handed pitchers…Diaz will platoon with Anderson and take the at-bats against left handed pitchers.

Prospects

1.      SP Tommy Hanson (4)*

2.      OF Jason Heyward (5)

3.      OF Jordan Schafer (42)*

4.      OF Gorkys Hernandez (62)

5.      1B Freddie Freeman (87)

6.      SP Cole Rohrbough

7.      SP Jeff Locke

8.      SP Julio Teheran

9.      RP Kris Medlan*

10.  RP Craig Kimbrel

The above are the Braves top ten prospects according to Baseball America.  Rankings in parenthesis are their rank on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list. A * denotes a 2009 ETA

Bottom Line

The Braves are no longer in rebuilding mode.  It is clear that they are playing to win now.  Though they lost out on Jake Peavy, A.J. Burnett, Rafael Furcal and Ken Griffey Jr, they are still much improved with Vazquez and Lowe now heading the front of their rotation.  Losing Smolz obviously hurts but if Tim Hudson can be effective when he returns then the Braves have a 1-2-3 as good as any.  Their success hinges on the bottom of their rotation, the health of Chipper Jones, and the performance of Jeff Francoeur.  If all these things fall into place who’s to say the Braves can’t make a run and steal the NL East crown.  It’s a lot of ifs though and I have them falling short and winning 86 games, good for third place.

Braves Lock Up Jones Through 2012

    The Atlanta Braves and all-star third basemen Chipper Jones have reached an agreement on a three year contract extension that guarantees him 42 million dollars with the potential value of the deal possibly rising to as much as 61 million.

    Jones turns 37 in April and will make 13 million in each year of the contract with seperate incentives of 1.5 million if he plays in 135 and 140 games.  A vesting 9 million dollar option takes effect if he plays in 123 games or more in 2012.  If he doesn't, the Braves can choose to pick up a team option for 7 million.

    Jones is coming of a season in which he led the majors with a .364 batting average and a .470 on base percentage.  He also hit 22 home runs with 75 RBI's despite only playing 128 games.  He was the first overall pick of the 1990 MLB Draft.  He has spent every season as a member of the Braves organization and won the MVP award in 1999.  He needs 92 homeruns for 500.

-Ben Chadwick

Hello

My name is Ben Chadwick and I will be updating Tomahawk Talk for the 2009 season.  It is Atlanta Braves blog.  I am 18 years old and a senior at Fairhaven High School.  I will be majoring in journalism next year at either Suffolk University or UMass Amherst.

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